Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, April 9 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Mr. Miracle (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Mr. Miracle
2. Fourth Dimension
3. Hickman Creek
Embed from Getty ImagesMR. MIRACLE has taken two losses as a strong favorite to start his career. That would make me back off at a short price in most cases – but watching him work recently with both Emerging Market, who’s going to the Derby, and Paladin, the Derby fave before being injured, I’ll take my chances. FOURTH DIMENSION passed Mr. Miracle for second when they met in Florida. Fourth D is coming the right way in typically steady Mott style but is much more grindy than the top pick – don’t see him beating Mr M again here. HICKMAN CREEK ran poorly enough in his debut that one might just toss the race and start over. He’s blinkers off with four works since his last, but since one came on turf, one wonders if they’re casting about a little for answers here.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Skara Brae
2. Ruiva
3. Crossfire
Truly, I am not setting out to pick the W Ward chalk in these 2yo races – it’s just working out that way. And works are a big part of it. From the available work video, the Ward-trained SKARA BRAE looks best here. March 26, the most recent video – she went from the gate with two others. One fell back, the other was intended for a longer, stronger drill than Skara Brae – and let me tell you, she did not want to be reined in and let the other horse go. She should show plenty of pace. RUIVA didn’t catch the eye to the extent Skara Brae did, but don’t mind the way she went, either. Check how the B Walsh-trained Smoke runs on the Wednesday card, because CROSSFIRE tried to and somewhat succeeded in going right with him when Smoke, tracking Crossfire and another worker, loomed wide past the eighth pole.
Second Race
1. Safe Space
2. Sharing Wisdom
3. Gus’s Gal
SAFE SPACE a homebred by a stud with a listed $7.5K fee – if she’s all right but nothing spectacular, debuting for this $20K tag makes sense. The trainer for whatever reason (randomness is one possibility) has won with three of his last five first-timers. Work video looks all right enough for this level. SHARING WISDOM shown next to nothing in her two dirt starts – have a pretty strong sense she’ll show much more on this class drop. No work video but a very lively KEE half-mile prepping for this. GUS’S GAL stuck way down on the AE list but should play a part if she manages to draw in.
Third Race
1. Mom’s Cheesecake
2. Danzig’s Dora
3. Ma Rae’s Girl
MOM’S CHEESECAKE won over 6 1/2f last fall at KEE, beating comparable competition in so doing, and there might be enough pace to set things up for her here at 6f. In any case, horses from off the pace did more than leaders during opening weekend dirt racing. DANZIG’S DORA beat a 6-5 class dropper out of allowance ranks in her last start. That, plus a blowout maiden-claiming win two back, gets her out of the claiming ranks and into starter-allowance competition. No surprise if she improves again. Interesting to see trainer K Danner claim MA RAE’S GIRL for herself out of the filly’s last race. Had run at higher levels throughout career before being dropped in for the $30K tag that makes her eligible for this race. Has any number of races good enough to win this, though she was dull two back in a comeback run.
Fourth Race
1. Amberglen
2. Tideoftime
3. Trust Account
No work video for AMBERGLEN put the Payson pattern looks impeccable. Rained off turf in her last race and ran into Sister Troienne, best turf/synth 3yof racing at GP this winter. In any case, Amber perhaps not as good on synthetic as grass. Was on this very grass course where she beat 11 despite a wide trip in her debut last fall. I’m sure she’s been pointed to this and will run a competitive race. Not sure how much blinkers did for TIDEOFTIME last out – and also not sure whether she’s on the cusp of a breakthrough or merely limited. But it would not take much progress to get her over the N1X hump here. TRUST ACCOUNT maybe wasn’t quite ready to start ascending as a 2yo and maybe the MSW win in her 3yo bow says that now she is. But she beat just seven rivals last out after getting a perfect pressing trip. Have some reservations.
Sixth Race
1. Kokomotion
2. May Gray
3. Petronella
KOKOMOTION was scratched from the Appalachian last weekend – and I don’t think she’d have been out of her depth there. Did get a setup in the flashy debut score, but while beaten into third in the Florida Oaks, she turned in quite an encouraging performance there. I think she’s just better than these – unless MAY GRAY is even better turf routing than she’s been dirt sprinting. Not ruling that out, and the pedigree is there, but seems likely to go forward from her rail draw and speed, for whatever reason, was for the most part getting run over in opening weekend turf contests. PETRONELLA after a freshening and with an equipment change could be ready to take a step forward. She was a tricky ride at 2 and in her early 2026 start. Talent’s there if she’ll learn to express it.
Seventh Race
1. Majestical
2. Call Me Precious
3. Market Chill
I picked MAJESTICAL to win the Rachel Alexandra. Her second-start MSW route win didn’t get much of a figure, but I liked that race quite a bit. Don’t know what went amiss, but she was a total no-show in the Rachel. Was entered and scratched in a race where the trainer ran another horse, and I’d guess she’s been held out for this rich allowance race. Rich, but not strong, at least on paper. If she even comes close to fulfilling the promise I thought she had before her last race, she wins, but the price apparently will be wrong. CALL ME PRECIOUS might have wound up in this race when it was coming together with a short field – the right kind of spot to try a turf horse on dirt. One dirt run last year meh at best, but it did come around one turn and she seems more a router. MARKET CHILL made her first three starts on turf and perhaps just needed the fourth-out move to dirt to find herself. Alternatively, she caught a soft bunch of maidens at Tampa, and that’s what made the difference.
Eighth Race
1. Risk Tolerance
2. Reagan’s Wit
3. Mountain Bear
RISK TOLERANCE, other than his second start, has run nothing but strong races – none stronger than his most recent one. Had that race been at KEE, he’d have cleared the condition, as pacesetting Mi Bago, who’s not without ability, was very much saved by the wire. RT’s final quarter in 22.70 almost a full second faster than the next quickest come-home time. This is no easy spot, yet still a fairly confident opinion. REAGAN’S WIT took forever to find stride in his 2026 debut, an FG stakes that has aged pretty well given the success Lagynos found in subsequent stakes at the meet. He is a tricky horse to ride and gets his regular jockey back here. Does not need to lose touch with the leaders like he did last time. MOUNTAIN BEAR seemed to be over the top when not especially competitive at this class level at KEE in October. Likely can do better than that, but development did seem to stall out last season. His best race, though, puts him squarely in the mix.
Ninth Race
1. Formaggio
2. Merry Madison
3. Mustang Lady
On again, off again FORMAGGIO might not have cared for a wet track in her last start – though three races ago she backed up on a fast track. She’s got early speed and the rail and drops down to her lowest level – those characteristics and Irad Ortiz taking the mount figure to make her far lower than the 15-1 morning-line odds. MERRY MADISON showed signs of life in November, but back from a winter back was back to her lesser self – which is why the N1X allowance quest ends and she goes for a $20K tag. Of course, she can drop and win, but it’s wise to cast a cold eye on horses like this who are going to get bet. MUSTANG LADY can clunk her way into the trifecta. The trainer gets a lot out of his modest stable.
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