Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Kenny Peck handicaps the Wednesday, March 4 racing card at Tampa Bay Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Tigre (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Tigre
2. Zhu Daddy
3. Jibilian
TIGRE settled for the show in his latest, but he ran well in defeat, in fact probably moving best of them all in the late stages and galloping out with interest after the wire. He draws wide once again, but his tactical speed should mean he’s well spotted from the start, and he’d certainly benefit from quicker fractions up front. ZHU DADDY is on the AE list but merits a mention on the strength of his recent figures; he was closing nicely two back, when last at this level, and though he was off the board in his latest that was against better. JIBILIAN has the best recent Beyers in the field, though he was aided by fast early splits in each of his last two, which served to inflate his figures; not convinced he can run back to those numbers without another ideal pace set up.
Here are Kenny’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Downs card.
First Race
1. Repetitive
2. Unique Power
3. King Gerald
REPETITIVE ran a big race in his well-bet debut, and though he didn’t cross the wire first he was the best horse in the race and placed first via disqualification after he was bumped and squeezed in the lane by American Direction; that rival returned to post a 79 in defeat, verifying which seemingly verifies this gelding’s figure, and if he can run back to that effort in his second career start he’ll be very tough to beat in this opener. UNIQUE POWER was claimed off his maiden score last time out, and though the Beyer is a little light compared with the top pick, he has lots of room to improve in his second start off the layoff. KING GERALD was game in defeat in his latest, at seven furlongs, and he may appreciate this move back to six panels.
Second Race
1. El Orejon
2. Giggity
3. Efata
EL OREJON looms a relatively short price as he seeks his third win in four starts, but he’s tough to take a stand against given his Beyer edge; this is his first start off the claim for trainer Craig Smith. This gelding can pay quick dividends if he can run back to his last couple of efforts. GIGGITY was a game-winner against maidens in his latest, and he fits based on that effort. He has speed and the rail and will likely look to steal it on the stretch-out to seven furlongs. EFATA was probably too close to the pace when off the pace at this distance two back; could be set up to make an impact late if able to take back and make a bid from further off the pace, particularly if GIGGITY were to hook up with the top pick and I’M MISCHIEVOUS, or others, in the early stages.
Embed from Getty ImagesThird Race
1. Mayheminthepalace
2. Conspiracy Fact
3. Saybrook
MAYHEMINTHEPALACE is down in class off the layoff, which can be viewed as a negative, but he was only claimed for $6,250 two back, so it’s not as if trainer Kent Sweezey is just giving him away for $5,000; he is a strong fit based on his Gulfstream efforts and figures and his tactical speed and inside post should mean he’s well spotted from the outset. CONSPIRACY FACT cuts back to one turn, and this is a decent angle for high-percentage trainer Juan Arriagada; he was game in defeat at this distance two back, against better, and he’ll be tough here if he can avoid another race-long duel on the lead. SAYBROOK is at his best when on the lead. That’s where he figures to be at this slightly extended distance; dangerous if allowed to shake loose at this reduced level.
Fourth Race
1. Chacarera
2. China Blue
3. Ariana Valentina
Expecting a much-improved effort from CHACARERA, who has lots of room to improve after running against unfavorable race flows in her last pair, consecutive races lacking pace which thus set up well for the speeds (note the bold “S” in DRF pp’s); prior Beyer is good enough to put her in the mix here, if she can run to it, and it is further proof she was hindered by the pace scenarios in her last two. CHINA BLUE makes her first start off the Alejandro Mendieta claim, a 25% angle for the barn, and she comes off a solid try in defeat against a step lesser; thinking the resulting figure is a little inflated thanks to the set up and clean trip but while it will mean a light price she probably needn’t run to that Beyer to win this. ARIANA VALENTINA had no problem switching back to the main track in her latest. She’s going to be a factor late once again, given a clean trip and an honest pace to chase.
Sixth Race
1. Peppapete
2. Grandpa’s Ace
3. American Tact
PEPPAPETE should be in a very good stalking position once again today, as there are a couple of confirmed frontrunners to his inside and he has proven positional speed. He failed despite that same scenario in his latest, but that was against better. He has license to break through and graduate today at this reduced level. GRANDPA’S ACE has to deal with the rail for his debut, which is not the best draw for an inexperienced runner, but given a clean getaway, he could be a factor against this seemingly average field for the class level; dam was winless in 22 starts, but she’s produced six winners, a pair of runners who earned over six figures. AMERICAN TACT is another firster who could be a factor by default; dam was unraced, but both of her two runners were minor winners.
Seventh Race
1. Uncle’s Gold
2. Spirit Prince
3. Soliway
UNCLE’S GOLD was a close-up third in his latest, snapping a modest two-race win streak, but he may have simply moved too soon in that loss; he’ll need some help getting into this race as an Also Eligible. If he gets to run, he’s likely to make a run late. SPIRIT PRINCE is easy to like off that last run, when he put up an 89 Beyer and came up only a half-length short; he’ll be heavily bet, but off that race and given trainer Miguel Clement’s dominance at this meet, it’s difficult to take a strong stand against him. SOLIWAY could be the right value play if he’s ignored at the windows thanks to that dull effort in his latest, as he could have simply hated running on dirt; the figure he posted two back fits with these. He’d be an appealing play if at or even near his 12-1 Morning Line price.
Eighth Race
1. Cross Haste
2. Brother Brad
3. Final Drama
Perhaps it was CROSS HASTE not agreeing with the addition of blinkers, or it was the tougher competition, but the unfavorable race flow is what sells me on CROSS HASTE, who was in a pace-filled field and backed up when unable to get close in the opening stages (note the bold “C” in DRF pp’s, indicating a Closer-friendly race flow); can go a long way if able to make the lead today. BROTHER BRAD drops upon shipping over from Gulfstream and may find the locals more his speed; Beyers put him on the short list of contenders. FINAL DRAMA took a big step forward since adding blinkers three back, and though he turns back in distance for this, he’s still quick enough to establish position from the outset.
Ninth Race
1. Double Neat
2. Willpowered
3. Chicago Theatre
DOUBLE NEAT was gradually getting to the leader in the lane last time, and though he was unable to do so (and both were run over by the 2/5 favorite), he hardly ran a poor race in defeat. Should appreciate the extra ground today and can make the last run given a clean trip behind a quick, contested pace. WILLPOWERED didn’t earn the biggest of figures in that maiden score two months ago, but he also had to overcome tepid early splits to get up in time; may be overlooked some in the wagering thanks to that depressed Beyer despite the barn’s strong record at the meet. CHICAGO THEATRE has strong figures and also has shown he’s versatile enough to either race on the lead or come from off the pace; either way, he’ll be a factor from the bell for trainer Tom Proctor, who is currently winning at 42%(!) at the meet (10-for-24).
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