Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Monday, March 2 racing card at Turf Paradise, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Resultant (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Resultant
2. Ratleff
3. No Ordinary Tiger
RESULTANT is better of late, likes it here, likes this distance, draws fine, and keeps Vergara. Let’s move on then. RATLEFF is better on the dirt. We like how he puts four races together and even has some upside. He won’t be that far off the pace today compared to his most recent as race flow is soft. A recent work is never a bad thing while regular rider tags along. NO ORDINARY TIGER might find the front end where an early breather awaits. The last time this guy cleared off, he finished second by a neck on the local sod 5 back.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other seven races on Monday’s Turf Paradise card.
First Race
(Quarter horses)
1. Jess Revvin It Up
2. Heart On a Run
3. Turn It Upp
Second Race
1. Your Call
2. Flash That Smile
3. Max’s Maxine
YOUR CALL is a lightly raced 6YO that just won for fun off the long layoff. A pair of recent works is just right, all for a barn that is 2 for 5 with horses that won their last race. Another outside post rounds out the appeal. FLASH THAT SMILE found local foes more to his liking when smashing at 1 to 10. What if this guy improves second time here? The inside runners have some speed, so this guy might have to work harder early. He is still the one to beat. MAX’S MAXINE has a penchant for less, but that doesn’t change the fact that he was simply unlucky to lose the photo only two back. New barn puts the blinkers ON and we are all for anything different at this level.
Third Race
1. Lanilla
2. Interplay
3. Benster
LANILLA needs only to repeat either of her Del Mar races to win this. Connections find a spot where this filly can’t be claimed and pick up a top jock in Americano. There is little pace in this race, so this horse should be forwardly placed for a nice trip. INTERPLAY ran OK last out and now goes second time on this sod all while putting three races together. Connections waste little time finding this mare a race. If this horse sits early, then race flow or lack thereof could hurt some. BENSTER went favored last out but could only manage the place. Second time here is a plus, and she won’t be that far off the early pace.
Embed from Getty ImagesFourth Race
1. Limited Heatwave
2. Fancy Dancer
3. Brass
LIMITED HEATWAVE was right there with a furlong to go in his most recent only to tire. There is little pace in this race, and this horse often runs best when close to the front end. That is today, right? Second time at this level could be the tipping point. FANCY DANCER hates the grass. We see a trip like that winning one only two back. BRASS does have some upside with this being only his sixth start. This colt strings three races together for the first time and should like two turns with his 384 distance Tomlinson.
Fifth Race
1. Looking for You
2. Every Third Day
3. State Forty Eight
LOOKING FOR YOU is by a 18% debut sire. His dam went 12-1-0-0 and earned 11K. Of 11 sibs to race, 10 won (4 earned at least 100K). Works are plentiful and we like this outside post. EVERY THIRD DAY is the only entrant with experience and that is huge. A better break will go a long way. Always nice to see debut rider keep the call. STATE FORTY EIGHT is by a 18% debut sire. His dam went 13-3-5-0 and earned 90K. This is her first foal. Works are sharp. FLIGHT RYDER is by a 0-for-9 debut sire. His dam went 5-2-2-1 for 46K, and this is her first foal. NOW CATO is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 9-1-0-2 for 14K. One of two sibs won and is a multiple winner of 74K (other sib is 3-0-1-1 for 5K). RUNNING WRANGLER is by a 18% debut sire. His dam went 10-2-2-0 for 10K. All 3 sibs won, including a pair of multiple winners (19K and 70K). TAKE THE RAIL is by a 9% debut sire. His dam went 32-7-7-10 for 229K. Both sibs beat winners and earned 33K and 39K. HE GOT LIT is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 2-1-0-0 for $9,400. Three of four sibs beat winners and banked 13K, 262K, and 152K.
Sixth Race
1. Pennypatter
2. Veronica’s Delight
3. Emma G
PENNYPATTER is a hard trier that has run poorly only once, and that came in her debut. Her return try was top shelf, and now she is more likely than not to improve second time here. She has some speed and this pace is average at best. VERONICA’S DELIGHT exits a key race where 3 of 5 returned to win with available figs of 71 and 65 (another finished 2nd with a Beyer of 59). This mare has solid figs and drops in class. EMMA G won her debut at Los Al and did so at 23-1. She tried a turf route in her second start, and that is tough, so no surprise she only beat one home. These are just easier. Second time Lasix is often better for the girls. SMART ALTERNATIVE exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 49 and 57.
Eighth Race
1. Magoo
2. Olympic Legend
3. Chelsiesdanziglite
MAGOO returns to team Silva, and they were in charge only three back when this guy won EZ. His most recent was OK, but it was also his first sprint in a while. That 405 distance Tommy hints at sprint ability. Castellanos gets a leg up and is 31% for this barn. OLYMPIC LEGEND is feeling great. He might find the front end today. Alas, he won’t be 15-1 again. CHELSIESDANZIGLITE is a speed horse that sat off the pace last out and then won at 26-1. Did this guy learn a new trick? What if this guy improves second time here? We bet he is a better price than at least a few of these.
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