Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Wednesday, February 18 racing card at Turfway Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Coming in Hot (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. Coming in Hot
2. Smokey Smokey
3. Boltage
COMING IN HOT gets good race flow and that is a good place to start for any handicapping endeavor. We think this guy needed his return try at least to some extent. Not sure double layoff lines are valid simply because the weather was so poor. This horse loves this synth. What if this guy is better as a 4YO? Morales gets a leg up and is 20% for this barn locally. SMOKEY SMOKEY just figures. He likes it here and going this far. He draws fine and has a sharp recent work. BOLTAGE shipped down to Gulfstream and only beat one home but many a runner down there needs time to acclimate. This horse figures better going one turn anyway. A local work can’t hurt.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other nine races on Wednesday’s Turfway Park card.
First Race
1. High End
2. Lyric Street
3. Pauline’s Angel
HIGH END just needs to like this surface to be a major player. Team Clement are 44% going special weight to maiden claimer. Belmont works are solid and this barn is more than capable off a freshening. LYRIC STREET has speed and puts three races together. Her penchant for less is the main stumbling block. Race flow is average so that helps a front end trip if indeed that is what connections want. This horse has finished 2nd the last three times that she drew the rail. PAULINE’S ANGEL broke 7th of 8 in her debut but still ran evenly. This is dam’s first foal so no help there. Weight break, class drop, and second time racing all combine to help.
Second Race
1. Protomagic
2. Krispy Rice
3. Kanazawa
PROTOMAGIC did run better in her last race and will be a big price. This mare has gotten a Beyer of at least 60 in her last three starts here so we know she loves this synth. She gets off the rail and cuts back a half furlong to a distance where she has won 2 of 8. Race flow is more than fair for this closer. KRISPY RICE went favored in her most recent and ran a solid 2nd. Layoff lines are the main stumbling block but don’t forget that the cold weather forced a lot of missed time during the morning. This mare gets in light and can pass horses for a good trip. KANAZAWA draws outside main pace foes which will help her trip. That was a big Beyer last out but not sure this filly can clear this field. Plus, she could bounce off that big try. The alternative is that this lightly raced 4YO has figured out this racing game and is now improving by the minute.
Third Race
1. Possiblemente
2. Shards
3. Churchtown
POSSIBLEMENTE is one of many that you could make a good case for and that means a good betting race is upon us. This gelding ran well last out when shipping in from Woodbine so chances are that he likes it here. That recent work was 2nd best of 58 so there is more evidence of a fondness for this track. Team Sharp are 23% going route to sprint. SHARDS was getting better and better until his last race. Did something go awry hence the time off? New gelding angle applies. This guy is proven here, draws fine, figures a price, and is reunited with win rider in Ramos (see four back). CHURCHTOWN might have simply needed his return try. This gelding has run well going this tricky distance before. We like that De La Cruz keeps the call all for a barn that is 22% second off this type of layoff.
Embed from Getty ImagesFourth Race
1. J P Hellish
2. Alpha Omega
3. Tres Soles
J P HELLISH just figures. This 10YO is still cashing checks and is a hard trier that likes it here. Team Bush are 25% with their repeating winners and they show a flat bet profit. Race flow is average and that neither helps nor hurts. ALPHA OMEGA has speed and puts races together. This gelding got a taste of winning in his 9th start and simply loved it. Team Eurton are 16% second off this type of layoff. TRES SOLES has solid figs and goes for a high percentage barn that are 20% off the claim. A stalking trip from this post is fine even if more than a few are going to want that same spot. This barn won with this horse only six back and that was their only start together.
Fifth Race
1. Dokkodo
2. Stoic Sage
3. Phila Street
DOKKODO is by a 9% debut sire. His dam went 24-2-2-4 and earned 197K. All 4 sibs beat winners and earned 45K, 183K, 58K, and 68K. Three sibs tried routing and all 3 won doing so. Lots and lots of works help with route debut. STOIC SAGE is by a 15% debut sire. His dam went 19-2-4-6 and earned 138K. This is her first foal. Team Walden are 22% with debut maiden claimers and 12% debuting at a mile or more. The rail draw going two turns is a small advantage. PHILA STREET is the X factor. Class drop for team Cox is huge. Second time here should help. Not being rank would be ideal. De La Cruz gets a leg up and is 3 for 7 for this barn locally. BAYTOWN ANUBIS exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 71 and 60.
Sixth Race
1. Sunny’s Flame
2. Isa Lei
3. Tough as Nails
SUNNY’S FLAME is a new route horse. Not sure what happened last out but perhaps that race is too bad to be believed. We like that regular rider gets a leg up. This filly wants the front and is more likely than not to get it. Wire please. ISA LEI ran a little better last out and that is always a good place to start. She is 2 for 10 here and 1 for 16 anywhere else. She has hit the board going a mile in four of five starts. She draws fine and should be in chase mode from the start. TOUGH AS NAILS has run well here in two of her last four starts. What was wrong with her most recent when 2nd at 56-1 ? She puts three races together and figures a good price once again.
Seventh Race
1. Ms Jinxy
2. Brandys Delight
3. High Dollar Dolly
MS JINXY was right there at the 1/8th pole only to tire late. Now throw in the fact that this filly was trying a tough 6 1/2 panels off a layoff and you have a good try. Her two turns on the turf in her debut was no picnic either. Class drop and second Lasix while second off said layoff rounds out the appeal. BRANDYS DELIGHT is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 44-21-4-4 and earned 392K. All 4 sibs won with 2 having beat winners (170K and 584K). This filly is bred to be anything yet debuts at this lowest of levels. Some caution is advised. HIGH DOLLAR DOLLY actually ran OK 2 and 3 back. Can’t fault connections for trying a route previously. Team Elliott are 25% going route to sprint. VEUVE ON TAP exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 45 and 31. SUBTLE TWIST exits a key race where 3 of 9 returned to win with figs of 64, 77, and 58. MESCOOL exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with figs of 37 and 41.
Eighth Race
1. Mr Bobo
2. Nyquistador
3. Sumood
We stared at this race for a while and got nowhere. We do know that the 6, 7, and 9 are going to take the majority of the action here and perhaps that places the value elsewhere. MR BOBO gets the double whammy of Lasix and first gelding. This guy ran well in his debut and off a layoff so firing fresh is likely. This gelding has beaten over half the field home in four of five career starts. Race flow is fine if all stay in. NYQUISTADOR has improved his Beyer in every start so who is to say where his ceiling is. That maiden claiming race will help the price as this guy returns to special weights. Today’s 3 post is much better than recent 11 draw. SUMOOD is proven here and puts three races together for the first time. Perhaps blinkers addition proves the tipping point. CULTURE WAR exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 90 and 75. PRIME EDGE exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with Beyers of 63 and 67
Tenth Race
1. Sassagoula River
2. Brea From Three
3. Horsetron Supreme
SASSAGOULA RIVER is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 and this is her first foal. Works are just good and more than a few are fast. Saez gets a leg up and is 3 for 3 for this barn here. BREA FROM THREE just ran much better last out and it was his first start on this synth. Most runners improve the second time they do anything. Tactical speed helps the trip. HORSETRON SUPREME did get some play in his debut when sent off at 6-1 even though this is dam’s first foal. We like that debut rider sticks around. BIG TOM is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 18-2-2-1 and earned 71K. This is dam’s first foal.
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