Indian Wells Best Bets Today: BNP Paribas Open tennis picks for Tuesday, March 10

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open is in full swing at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, and Tuesday, March 10 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from Tennis Paradise. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Indian Wells, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 BNP Paribas Open best bets are built to help you profit all the way through the men’s final on Sunday, March 15. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.

Arthur Fils vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Fils dealt with a serious back injury in the second half of last season, and the start to his 2026 campaign was derailed. However, the Frenchman is now beginning to stack wins, as he’s 8-4 on the season and had a runner-up finish in Doha — where he beat Jiri Lehecka and Jakub Mensik. Well, with Fils starting to look more like himself, this feels like the kind of match he can win.

Auger-Aliassime blasted Fils in Montpellier early in February, winning 6-4, 6-2 in a lopsided affair. However, that was Fils’ first tournament back. He didn’t quite have his legs under him, but it’s pretty clear he does now. Also, Montpellier is an indoor hard-court tournament, and Auger-Aliassime always plays his best tennis on those. He’s a big server that prefers quicker points, and those conditions are perfect for that. These ones? Not so much.

The gritty conditions in the desert should make things easier on Fils to return the Canadian’s massive first serve, and that’ll be huge in determining the winner here. If Fils does a good job of getting returns in play, he really should find a way through. He’s a much better baseliner than Auger-Aliassime, as he’s a better athlete, has a little more variety, and he just generally has a few more ways he can win matches.

Bet: Fils ML (+130 – 1.5 units)

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Learner Tien vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Davidovich Fokina is coming off a hard-fought win over Mensik. The Spaniard tossed away the second set, ruining a straightforward victory. However, he was able to regroup and find a way to win the third. In the past, Davidovich Fokina might have found a way to bottle that match up, so it was nice to see some mental toughness out of him. Unfortunately for the Spaniard, he did need to dig into his tank, using more energy than he needed to. That could come back to haunt him in the next round, as Tien is going to look to grind out a win.

Tien is coming off a good victory over Ben Shelton, outlasting the world No. 8 in a three-set battle. Shelton was a little under the weather in the match, but Tien was still able to hit his spots on serve, find ways to get returns back, and play clean, efficient tennis from the baseline. In other words, Tien was Tien. Well, Tien’s game could be a problem for Davidovich Fokina.

Davidovich Fokina won 6-2, 6-2 when these players met in D.C. last year, but I don’t see this one going the same way. Tien was all over the place in that match, and you just can’t count on that type of performance again. He’s as steady as they come in every part of the game.

Look for Tien’s ability to redirect pace to be a big factor in this one. Tien is going to calmly hit shots at his usual unique angles, and Davidovich Fokina could look to blast winners to try and put an end to rallies. But Tien tracks everything down and calmly pokes it the other way. I think he’s going to be able to do a lot of that here, and I also think he’s going to serve a lot better than he did in D.C. Overall, I just like Tien’s steady, borderline-pushing style to frustrate Davidovich Fokina, who can be erratic.

Bet: Tien ML (-119 – 1.5 units)