It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2026 season. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells tournament preview, where I’m dishing out some of my favorite plays on the futures market.
Indian Wells men’s futures
Carlos Alcaraz To Win Tournament (+150 – 3 units): Alcaraz hasn’t lost a tour-level hard-court match since last year’s Miami Open. The Spaniard is also a perfect 12-0 since the start of the new season, having won titles at the Australian Open and Doha. Alcaraz is just rapidly improving. His hold percentage is up from 87.6% in 2025 to 90.9 in 2026, and he’s making a higher percentage of his first serves. That used to be one of the weaker parts of his game, but he’s now capable of hitting his spots with the best of them. That’s leading to a good number of easy points, allowing him to conserve his energy for breaks and longer rallies. Alcaraz is also a much smarter player than he used to be, which is just as responsible for his quick rise to the top — and leap over Jannik Sinner. Alcaraz has cut down on his bone-headed mistakes, and he understands that his athleticism and ability to play with variety will allow him to win longer points — and that there’s no reason to do his opponents favors.
These conditions are also perfect for Alcaraz. A slower, higher bouncing hard court is great for an elite returner, a player that can track down anything, and a guy that can hit with heavy topspin. Also, Alcaraz is capable of winning grittier matches, while his peers can be prone to mental breakdowns when the playing conditions are a little wacky.
Alcaraz is a two-time BNP Paribas champion already, and there’s a good chance he breaks the record for most Indian Wells titles on the men’s side. Well, I think he starts moving closer to that distinction here. His draw is reasonable, Novak Djokovic tends to struggle in this portion of the season, and Sinner hasn’t looked like himself to start 2026.
Taylor Fritz To Win Quarter 2 (+400): This has been a miserable season for Fritz, but he has a decent path to the quarterfinals. I don’t see him running into any trouble until he potentially takes on Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16, but the Russian is still in Dubai because of everything currently going on in the world. Perhaps he’ll make it over to Indian Wells, but he has bigger things to worry about and I’m not sure he’ll play at a high level after such a strange week. Then, in the quarterfinals, Fritz is likely looking at either Djokovic or Jack Draper. But you know what? While Fritz has been awful against Djokovic in his career, the Serbian struggles at this point in the season. Meanwhile, Draper is returning from a lengthy injury, and he hasn’t looked sharp since getting back on the court. So, Fritz should really be a threat to win against whoever he faces.
Fritz just has a good game for this event, which is why he won it back in 2022 — and went through Rafael Nadal to do it. Also, he’s going to bounce back at some point, so why can’t it be here? He loves playing in California and he should be dealing with less pain in his knee than he was earlier in the season.
Realistically, as long as Fritz isn’t feeling awful in his knee and oblique, I like him to make a deep run here.
NOTE: Apparently Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, and Karen Khachanov were able to get on a flight to Istanbul, and they’re going to travel to Los Angeles from there. So, all three will be in the singles tournament. However, I’d be surprised if we see deep runs from any of them. They probably had a wild couple of days of worrying, and I’d guess they aren’t as prepared mentally or physically as the others in the draw.
Embed from Getty ImagesIndian Wells women’s futures
Jessica Pegula (10-1) & Coco Gauff (12-1) To Win Tournament: When looking at the bracket, I ended up with Pegula and Gauff in the final. That said, grabbing both at their current odds feels like a no-brainer.
Pegula is coming off a title run in Dubai, marking the fourth time in her career that she has won a 1000-level event. Pegula might still be searching for her first major, but she is plenty capable of winning big tournaments. And overall, her rock-solid game should be a perfect fit for these conditions, even if she hasn’t yet made a noteworthy run in the desert. Pegula’s a good server and returner, she moves well, and she’s good from the forehand and backhand wings. There’s just very little for opponents to exploit in these conditions. Also, while she could have to face a red-hot Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals, I’d like her chances. The courts should slow things down a little, giving the American a better shot at getting into Rybakina’s service games.
It’ll be a little a harder for Gauff. The 21-year-old’s serve is more problematic than ever, as her 11.2% double-fault percentage in 2026 is the worst of her career. She’s flat out gifting games to her opponents right now, and she’s going to need to get these yips under control eventually. However, serving will be hard for everyone in these conditions. So, Gauff’s elite returning, baseline play, and overall competitiveness could go a long way in helping her lift another big trophy. I just love Gauff’s ability to win ugly, and this tournament is as ugly as it gets for a non-clay event. Add in the home-court advantage she’ll have and I think she’s extremely live to post her first big result of the year.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast – Gill had Drew Dinsick on for some pre-draw Indian Wells thoughts, and then Gill and I dove into some futures once the draw was released. Make sure you check it out!
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