Iowa vs. Wisconsin

Sunday’s college basketball schedule features 21 games, a byproduct of having nearly 150 games on Saturday. While we are light on quantity, there are some quality matchups out there, including the Big Ten battle with Iowa vs. Wisconsin. This is pretty clearly the game of the day, as both teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament field, but games like these are important because The Bracket Matrix has Iowa as a No. 9 seed and Wisconsin as a No. 8 seed. Anything that can be done to get away from playing a No. 1 seed in the second round is a net positive.

So, this head-to-head matchup certainly has some implications. Not only could it have an impact on seeding for the Big Ten Conference Tournament in a few weeks, but it has the chance to help the winner strengthen their case for a No. 7 seed, which at least has a higher probability of moving on, even if facing a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance is no picnic either.

This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 21, 5:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

Iowa vs. Wisconsin (-2.5, 146.5)

Embed from Getty Images

4 p.m. ET

It seemed like Wisconsin was riding pretty high, but a 17-point loss to Ohio State on Tuesday halted whatever momentum the Badgers were building. Prior to that catastrophe in Columbus, Wisconsin’s only losses dating back to Jan. 3 were close defeats at the hands of USC and Indiana. The last loss sure was a humbling data point for a team that some were starting to invest in for the NCAA Tournament futures market.

Iowa, meanwhile, has one really unacceptable loss on the ledger from a brutal data point against Maryland. Otherwise, while the Hawkeyes are only 9-6 in conference play, four of the other five losses are in Quadrant 1-A games. Those are the creme de la creme of college basketball games and there is often no shame in losing those, especially because they are typically road games.

This game does qualify, at least based on Torvik’s rankings, as a Q1-A game for Iowa. They are 2-5 in those games so far this season and are coming off of their second such win against Nebraska last time out in an old-fashioned 57-52 rock fight. This is not a Q1-A game for the Badgers, but it is a Quadrant 1 game and a data point that they really need. While Wisconsin has a very good record overall, they are just 3-7 in Q1 games. They’re lacking quality wins and that will likely be a point of contention on Selection Sunday.

These two teams have not played yet, so we don’t have a head-to-head matchup to refer to when handicapping this one. Against Big Ten brethren, Iowa is ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. But, it should be noted that their defensive prowess is largely tied to their ability to force turnovers. They are actually 16th in the 18-team conference in 2P% defense. They’ve been better at defending the perimeter, but teams have had a ton of success when they’ve been able to get the ball inside.

Unfortunately for the Badgers, their offensive efficiency ranking is based on their low TO% on offense. They are not a good shooting team by conference standards, sitting 12th in 2P% and eighth in 3P%, while sitting 11th defensively in both categories. This is obviously a very good conference, and Wisconsin’s 35.5% 3P% in league play would be exceptional in another league, but I find that both of these teams are overrated based on their statistical profiles.

Is there an edge to be had in this game in spite of that? Perhaps. A quirk of Iowa’s body of work so far is that they are actually shooting much better on both 2s and 3s on the road in conference play than they are at home. But, they’ve also been atrocious on the defensive end.

For whatever reason, Wisconsin has also shot 3s more effectively on the road, but a lot of their other metrics are better at home. 

Iowa vs. Wisconsin Prediction

Iowa plays at a very slow pace under Ben McCollum, who was previously the head coach at Drake. Even with their limited number of possessions in a lot of games, they’ve still played some pretty high-scoring affairs, including at least 74 points allowed in five of their seven conference road games. Wisconsin will want to kick the tempo up a little bit. This feels like a game that has a good chance at going Over the total, as Iowa’s been more focused and more successful shooting the ball on the road and Wisconsin takes a very high rate of 3-point shots at home.

Pick: Over 146.5

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college basketball games on our Pro Picks Page.

See our College Basketball Page for more previews and predictions.

The post Iowa vs. Wisconsin College Basketball Prediction February 22, 2026 appeared first on VSiN.