Kentucky Derby 2026 Odds and Contenders: Paladin Down To 6-1 After Risen Star Triumph

Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening

Paladin’s half-length Risen Star Stakes victory Saturday earned him a promotion to 6-1 favoritism on Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby odds line, down from 10-1 last week. Handicapper David Aragona’s adjustment reflects the Chad Brown trainee’s flawless 3-for-3 record and 50 qualifying points—enough to virtually guarantee entry into the May 2 Churchill Downs field.

“I thought he made like three different moves in this race,” Daily Racing Form correspondent David Grening said on this week’s Derby Watch podcast. The Gun Runner colt’s 93 Beyer Speed Figure provides room for improvement heading into the April 4 Blue Grass Stakes. “This is a gradual progression,” Aragona explained. “Your floor now is at 93…be prime for your best third off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby, where you’re going to probably need a triple-digit Beyer.”

Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo, second and third in the Risen Star, now rank among seven horses tied at 30-1 in Daily Racing Form’s odds-based rankings. Chip Honcho benefited from a pace-setting trip after blinkers were removed, though Aragona expressed skepticism. “When you get into a 20 horse Kentucky Derby field, you’re not going to be loose on the lead,” he said.

Golden Tempo disappointed again, prompting trainer Cherie DeVaux to add blinkers for his Louisiana Derby return. “He continues to get himself just a bit too much to do,” Grening observed.

The rankings experienced significant turnover. Mesquite exited with injury, Thunderously suffered a setback, and Courting dropped off after finishing sixth. Al Haram joined at ninth (50-1) following his Saudi Derby victory, though Aragona cautioned that “strong late run in one-turn races doesn’t often equate to success going longer,” according to Daily Racing Form.

This weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (February 28, Gulfstream Park) features fourth-ranked Commandment (20-1) making his first start since dominating January 3, while sixth-ranked Canaletto (30-1) stretches out after an eight-length maiden romp. Undefeated Swale winner Solitude Dude adds intrigue to what Daily Racing Form identifies as a pivotal prep.

Todd Pletcher trains two of the top three: Nearly (10-1) targeting the Florida Derby and Renegade (12-1) pointing toward the Arkansas Derby, both on March 28.

View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.

RUNNING THIS WEEK

Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2)
Gulfstream Park, Race TBD
Friday, February 28, 2026
Featuring: #4 Commandment, #6 Canaletto from Daily Racing Form rankings

TOP 10 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS

Understanding the Rankings

Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings are determined by odds assigned by handicapper David Aragona. Horses with identical odds share the same ranking.

1. Paladin (6-1)

Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 – 1st by ½
Next Start: Blue Grass S. (G1), April 4, Keeneland
Top Beyer: 93

2. Nearly (10-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 – 1st by 5¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98

3. Renegade (12-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by 3¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92

4. Commandment (20-1)

Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Mucho Macho Man S., Jan. 3 – 1st by 6¾
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 91

5. Further Ado (25-1)

Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), Nov. 29 – 1st by 1¾
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98

5. Litmus Test (25-1)

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Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Dec. 13 – 1st by 1¼
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96

5. Plutarch (25-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by ¾
Next Start: TBD
Top Beyer: 90

6. Blackout Time (30-1)

Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Last Race: Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Oct. 4 – 2nd by 2¾
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 93

6. Brant (30-1)

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Oct. 31 – 3rd by 1½
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 101

6. Canaletto (30-1)

Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: GP maiden, Jan. 25 – 1st by 8
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 89

6. Chip Honcho (30-1)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 – 2nd by ½
Next Start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 92

6. Golden Tempo (30-1)

Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 – 3rd by 6
Next Start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 84

6. Intrepido (30-1)

Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 2nd by ¾
Next Start: TBD
Top Beyer: 89

6. Silent Tactic (30-1)

Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: Southwest S. (G3), Feb. 6 – 1st by 3¼
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 88

7. Napoleon Solo (35-1)

Trainer: Chad Summers
Last Race: Champagne S. (G1), Oct. 4 – 1st by 6½
Next Start: Fountain of Youth or Gotham, Feb. 28
Top Beyer: 95

7. So Happy (35-1)

Trainer: Mark Glatt
Last Race: San Vicente S., Jan. 10 – 1st by 2
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96

Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening

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