Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
The Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list welcomed four new horses this week after a weekend of surprising results saw favorites falter in both the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes.
The Puma and Potente join the rankings at 25-1 after their respective victories Saturday earned each 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Cherokee Nation (30-1) and Danon Bourbon (40-1) also crack the Top 20, while Brant, Canaletto, So Happy, and Secured Freedom drop off following disappointing efforts or campaign adjustments.
Nearly and Renegade each moved from 12-1 to 10-1, while the top six positions remained unchanged with Paladin (6-1) holding favoritism ahead of Chief Wallabee and Commandment (both 8-1).
Tampa Bay Derby delivers three-horse thriller
The Puma rallied from a wide trip to defeat Further Ado by three-quarters of a length in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby, with Canaletto another head back in third. All three finishers raced widest of all throughout, with The Puma positioned five to six wide on the backstretch yet still prevailing.
The Essential Quality colt earned his first win, posting an 89 Beyer Speed Figure.
Further Ado, making his first start since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club in November, battled inside but came up short in the Tampa Bay Derby. The Brad Cox-trained colt will need faster figures moving forward.
Canaletto may target the Lexington Stakes rather than continue on the traditional Derby trail, with trainer Chad Brown’s connections to both Canaletto and Derby favorite Paladin potentially influencing the campaign.
Potente springs San Felipe surprise
Potente, making just his second career start, wore down 60-1 longshot Robusta to win Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes by a head, earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure.
The Into Mischief colt, trained by Bob Baffert, graduated impressively in his debut before tackling graded stakes company. His strong gallop-out impressed observers, though questions remain about the quality of the Southern California 3-year-old crop and whether Potente benefited from a favorable trip against potentially distance-challenged rivals.
Brant finished off the board, confirming pre-race doubts about his readiness and stamina for two turns. So Happy and Secured Freedom also disappointed, with both potentially better suited to shorter distances.
New faces join rankings
Cherokee Nation earned his Top 20 debut at 30-1 after winning a Santa Anita maiden race by 10 lengths on Feb. 27, recording a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The Not This Time colt is pointing to the Santa Anita Derby on April 4, where he needs to finish first or second to earn enough points for the Kentucky Derby.
Danon Bourbon, a Kentucky-bred racing in Japan for trainer Manabu Ikezoe, enters at 40-1 after winning two starts by a combined 15 lengths. The Maxfield colt needs a victory in the Fukuryu Stakes to remain Derby-eligible and is listed at 75-1 in Churchill Downs’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5.
This weekend and beyond
The final 50-point prep race of this round takes place Saturday at Colonial Downs in the Virginia Derby.
Next week begins the final round of Derby preps, with the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds both awarding 100 points to the winner on Saturday, March 21.0 San Felipe Stakes (Race 8, 6:41 p.m. ET) at Santa Anita; Further Ado and Canaletto in Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET).
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 6, March 10, 2026)
Horses listed with trainer and Derby odds from DRF Derby Watch (cutoff at 30-1):
Embed from Getty ImagesT1. Paladin (Chad Brown, 6-1)
Last start: 1st by 1/2, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Blue Grass Stakes (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T2. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 8-1)
Last start: 1st by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 101 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T4. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 5 3/4, Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 31 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T4. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 3/4, Sam F. Davis, Feb. 7 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M
6. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Undecided (Blue Grass or Wood Memorial likely)
7. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 20-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M
T8. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass Stakes (G1), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T8. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 1, Gotham (G3), Feb. 28 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8M
T8. Potente (Bob Baffert, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Undecided
T8. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 3/4, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Undecided
Full Top 20 also includes: Cherokee Nation (30-1), Chip Honcho (30-1), Golden Tempo (35-1), Intrepido (35-1), Reagan’s Honor (35-1), Danon Bourbon (40-1), Litmus Test (40-1), Al Haram (50-1), Blackout Time (50-1)
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post Kentucky Derby 2026 Odds and Contenders: The Puma, Potente Crack The List After Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe Stakes appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment