Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
The Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list adds Incredibolt off his Virginia Derby win and drops Al Haram this week. Paladin remains the 6-1 favorite, while Commandment and Chief Wallabee at 8-1 each and Nearly and Renegade at 10-1 each are all in action on Saturday, March 28.
Virginia Derby winner draws skepticism
On this week’s Derby Watch podcast, Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona flagged Incredibolt as a horse who “has the look of a horse who will be overbet in the Derby.” The Virginia Derby winner drew off by four lengths and impressed visually, but Daily Racing Form’s David Grening noted the colt earned just an 88 Beyer – meaning he has never cleared the 90 threshold – against a field both analysts found modest. Grening added that the seven-week gap to the Kentucky Derby with no further prep planned adds another layer of risk for bettors. Grittiness rallied six wide for second, while Buetane encountered traffic on the turn and was blocked by Ocelli at the sixteenth pole before keeping on for fourth – a troubled trip that trainer Bob Baffert cited in pointing the colt to the Wood Memorial.
Louisiana Derby pace sets up for Chip Honcho
Embed from Getty ImagesThe 100-point prep season opens Saturday with two races. In the Louisiana Derby, Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo represent the top 20. Grening said he ended up thinking Chip Honcho “would be tougher to beat in this race than I initially might have thought” – the pace picture shapes up similarly to the Risen Star, where Chip Honcho controlled the fractions unchallenged on the front end. Golden Tempo adds blinkers after spotting himself too much ground in the Risen Star.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks on Saturday at Turfway Park also offers 100 points over the synthetic surface, with no ranked horses entered.
Arkansas Derby field needs points badly
The Arkansas Derby on March 28 brings together Renegade, Silent Tactic, Litmus Test, and Blackout Time – and Aragona and Grening were direct about what those horses need: a first- or second-place finish. With the current cutoff at 20 points and the final 100-point preps about to run, Grening projected the eventual Derby cutoff could reach 45 points or higher. A horse finishing third in a 100-point race earns just 25 points – potentially still short of what Grening projected as the cutoff. For Blackout Time at 50-1, Aragona noted he is “just barely hanging onto” his spot on the list and needs a major forward move to justify a place in the gate. The March 28 Florida Derby draws Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Nearly, and potentially The Puma – with the race most likely to reshape the top of the board before Derby week.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 7, March 18, 2026)
Horses listed with trainer and Derby odds from DRF Derby Watch (cutoff at 30-1):
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, 6-1)
Last start: 1st by 1/2, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T2. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 8-1)
Last start: 1st by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 101 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T4. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 5 3/4, Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 31 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T4. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 3/4, Sam F. Davis, Feb. 7 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M
6. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 15-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M
T7. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Blue Grass (G2) or Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Keeneland or Aqueduct, 1 1/8M
T7. Incredibolt (Bill Mott, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by 4, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T7. Potente (Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8M
10. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 10, SA maiden, Feb. 27 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8M
T11. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T11. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 3/4, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Florida Derby (G1) or Blue Grass (G2), March 28 or April 4, Gulfstream Park or Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T13. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, 30-1)
Last start: 2nd by 1/2, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 92 Beyer
Best Beyer: 92
Next start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16M
T13. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, 30-1)
Last start: 1st by 1, Gotham (G3), Feb. 28 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 95
Next start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/8M
T15. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 3rd by 6, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 84 Beyer
Best Beyer: 84
Next start: Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21, Fair Grounds, 1 3/16M
T15. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, 35-1)
Last start: 1st by 6 3/4, FG allowance, Feb. 19 – 96 Beyer
Best Beyer: 96
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
Full Top 20 also includes: Danon Bourbon (40-1), Intrepido (40-1), Litmus Test (40-1), Blackout Time (50-1)
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
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