Least Reliable Power 4 Teams ATS

Introduction

From a bettor’s standpoint, everyone likes identifying that reliable team that consistently delivers and gives them the best chance to win. That said, it can be just as important—if not more so—to recognize which teams to avoid. With the 2025 college football season rapidly approaching, a few programs across the Power 4 conferences have stood out for all the wrong reasons when it comes to covering the spread. In this piece, we’ll take a look at the worst four teams from each Power 4 conference and examine the specific trends that have caused them to consistently fall short compared to their peers.

Worst Power 4 Teams ATS since 2020

ACC: Once a prolific program in the early 2010s under Jim Harbaugh and now one of the three newcomers to the ACC, the Stanford Cardinal have been the worst team against the spread in the conference since 2020. Since that year, Stanford holds an overall record of 17-35-2 against the spread, covering just 32.7% of the time. Among the most notable trends during this stretch: the Cardinal are just 3-10-1 (23.1%) against the spread when playing with a rest advantage, and 5-15-0 (23.8%) against the spread when facing ranked opponents.

Big 12: Entering only their third season in the Big 12, the UCF Knights hold the worst record against the spread in the conference since 2020, going 25-37-0 and covering at a rate of just 40.3%. One of the most glaring trends contributing to this poor record is their performance with a rest disadvantage, where they’ve gone just 4-11-0 (26.7%) against the spread. It will be interesting to see if these trends continue under the new era led by head coach Scott Frost.

Big 10: One of the worst-performing teams in the Big Ten over the past few years, it’s no surprise that the Purdue Boilermakers hold the conference’s worst record against the spread. Since the 2020 season, Purdue is 21-36-0 against the spread, covering just 36.8% of the time. I guess home field advantage isn’t such an advantage for the Boilermakers, as Purdue has covered only 27.6% of the time at home (8-21-0) and just 26.7% as a home favorite (4-11-0). Where the Boilermakers have shown a bit more consistency is as a road underdog, covering 47.4% of those matchups (9-10-0) since 2020.

SEC: Oddsmakers have generally done a solid job setting lines for SEC teams, but the Texas A&M Aggies have been the conference’s worst team against the spread since 2020. Over that span, the Aggies have posted a 25-33-2 record against the spread, covering at just a 43.1% rate. While the sample sizes for some trends are relatively small, the numbers are still telling: Texas A&M is just 1-5-1 (16.7%) against the spread as an away underdog, and they’ve struggled out of a bye week as well, going 2-9-0 (18.2%) since 2020.

Conclusion

Whether you’re a bettor, a football team, or a sportsbook, adjustments are constantly being made. Trends matter—they can provide an edge when used wisely. Historical betting trends, in particular, highlight patterns and habits developed by certain teams and should be taken into account when evaluating the college football betting landscape—especially if you’re looking for teams to fade in 2025.