Louisville vs. Miami

Three games on Tuesday, two games on Wednesday, one game on Thursday, and now four games on Friday. It’s been a busy week in college football already, but now we’ve got some major conferences in action. The ACC and Big Ten will be represented on October 17, as well as the Mountain West. Louisville vs. Miami is certainly the most interesting game of the night and the one that I will spotlight, while looking at the other three in abbreviated form, including a pick on one of them.

We’ve got plenty of Week 8 College Football Picks and Predictions, so check it all out in our Betting Hub, and keep coming back because we’ll keep adding to it right up until kickoff on Saturday.

Odds from Circa Sports as of October 15, 6:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

Louisville vs. Miami (FL) (-13.5, 50.5)

Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

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It’s been a little while since we’ve seen these two teams. Louisville last suffered a 30-27 overtime setback at home against Virginia to end their dreams of a perfect season, while Miami’s is still very much intact after beating Florida State in Tallahassee for their first road game of the season. Now they’re back at home and won’t hit the road again until a Nov. 1 date with SMU.

The Cardinals had high hopes for this season with Miller Moss in from USC for Jeff Brohm’s third season at the helm. We’ve grown accustomed to the Year 3 bounce for a lot of programs as continuity definitely helps. But, it has been an underwhelming group thus far. Against FBS opponents, the Cardinals have averaged under 5.4 yards per play. Defensively, they’ve allowed a strong 4.72 YPP against FBS opponents. It’s important at this stage of the season to parse out the vs. FCS stats, especially with Power Four teams.

Louisville has allowed nearly 4.9 YPP in the two ACC games and has only managed 4.84 YPP, so they’ve been outgained on a per-play basis in conference action. Maybe the extra prep time and layoff will help, as the Cardinals need to find better ways to move the football. How they can’t with a highly-touted QB in Moss, two strong WR in Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy, and a terrific running back in Isaac Brown is stunning.

Moss has been sacked 13 times already. While Brown has 7.3 yards per carry, he had runs of 68 and 78 against Eastern Kentucky and James Madison. His longest carry in two ACC games has been 22 yards and he has 86 yards on 27 carries, so a 3.2 YPC average. Seven of Moss’s 13 sacks have been in the two ACC games, including five last game against Virginia. For all of the things Miami does well, they do only have 12 sacks, but they’ve also only played five games.

The Hurricanes have simply paid more attention to the details. They’re better on third down both ways and also have the better red zone offense. In 19 red zone trips, Miami has 15 touchdowns. Louisville has 11 TD in 18 trips. The Cardinals do have the better red zone defense and have only allowed 10 trips inside the 20, but that’s just one checkmark out of several boxes.

Miami has just 5.05 YPP against Power Four teams (Florida State, Notre Dame) so far, but their defense limited those two teams to just 4.04 YPP. Miami has obviously played the much harder schedule, as their FBS games include Notre Dame, Florida, and Florida State, but they have been contained a bit offensively. 

Neither team has generated a high rate of explosive plays. And both teams, albeit with five games played, rank in the top 10 in plays of 10+ yards allowed and have combined to allow just 12 plays of 30+ yards. Normally I’d be inclined to look at the underdog in a game that I think will be lower-scoring than the market expectation, but Louisville’s offense may get completely shut down here, allowing Miami to cover in an ugly type of game. I prefer the Under 50.5 to a side in this one.

Louisville vs. Miami Prediction: Under 50.5

Other Friday Games

Nebraska (-7.5, 47.5) vs. Minnesota: FOX has this 8 p.m. kickoff in the Big Ten, where we’ve seen “Mini Mahomes” Dylan Raiola and the Cornhuskers grow into more than a touchdown favorite on the road. The Matt Rhule third-year bump is in full swing, though the Penn State alum is being discussed for that opening already. 

Minnesota got outgained 456-262 by Purdue last time out, but won the turnover battle 4-1, including a game-deciding pick six. Misleading box scores often spark line moves and this an example. No play for me here, as PJ Fleck’s teams usually show up defensively, but this is a telling line move for sure.

San Jose State at Utah State (-3.5, 63): There was some reduced juice in the market as of Wednesday night if Utah State -3.5 tickled your fancy. In order to win and cover here, Utah State needs to figure things out defensively. They’ve allowed 99 points and 734 passing yards in the last two games. The Spartans can’t run the football at all and don’t really bother most of the time, as QB Walker Eget has already thrown 13 touchdown passes and has passed for 1,816 yards. Only seven QB have thrown for more yards and three of them have played an extra game.

Utah State QB Bryson Barnes has a 12/2 TD/INT ratio so far and has also been sacked 21 times. He also leads the team in carries with 81 for just 309 yards. It seems there are some offensive line concerns for the Aggies.

These two defenses rank 99th and 119th in yards per play allowed. Utah State has allowed over six yards per play in five FBS games and San Jose State has allowed nearly 6.5. I like San Jose State +3.5 here, as Utah State’s only wins are a horrible UTEP team, the worst defense in the nation (Air Force) and FCS McNeese State. The cold is my only reservation, but the Spartans should move the ball at will.

San Jose State vs. Utah State Pick: San Jose State +3.5 (-115)

North Carolina at Cal (-10, 47): The Hot Mess Express has taken a very long trip from Chapel Hill to Berkeley, as North Carolina visits Cal for the first time since 2018 when the teams were in very different conferences, but played a non-conference home-and-home in back-to-back seasons.

I can’t imagine where the UNC players’ heads are at given everything transpiring right now. But, laying 10 with Cal is pretty unattractive given how Jekyll and Hyde they’ve been this season. Cal has actually allowed 6.54 YPP in two ACC games and North Carolina allowed 6.97 in their loss to Clemson. This might be a low Over worth thinking about.

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.

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