LSU vs. Vanderbilt Pick College Football Week 8

LSU vs. Vanderbilt

The LSU Tigers head to Nashville on Saturday, October 18, for an SEC matchup with the Vanderbilt Commodores that offers plenty of intrigue for bettors. The Tigers are trying to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive by avoiding another early loss, while the Commodores have quietly become one of the SEC’s most competitive programs. This LSU vs. Vanderbilt betting preview breaks down the odds, matchups, and betting angles to watch before kickoff.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of October 17, 2:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.

LSU Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5, 48.5)

Saturday, October 18th at 12:00 pm ET

Vanderbilt hasn’t been favored against an SEC opponent since 1978, making this a very interesting matchup at FirstBank Stadium. While Clark Lea’s team is coming off a loss to Alabama, the Commodores can still get everything they want out of this season. That, combined with the Tigers being a College Football Playoff contender, makes this one of the biggest home games in Vanderbilt history.

LSU has dominated this head-to-head series over the years, and the team is 7-0 straight-up and 4-2-1 against the spread in their meetings since 2004. However, last year’s game was decided by only seven points, with Vanderbilt covering the 9.5 in Baton Rouge. That speaks to how far this program has come, and the Commodores will fully be expecting to win in their own building. This is, however, a tough matchup for Vanderbilt.

Blake Baker has completely transformed the Tigers defense, turning them into a top-30 unit in EPA per play allowed (-0.14). They’re also 20th in the nation in Defense Success (36.1%). And while they’re only tied for 38th in the country in Havoc % (13.3%), they do have talented pass rushers that should have Diego Pavia, one of the nation’s best dual-threat quarterbacks, feeling rushed throughout this one. LSU has also been good on early downs, ranking 22nd in Early Downs EPA per play allowed (-0.13). That’s one of the ways to get to this Vanderbilt offense. Making Pavia a traditional dropback passer on third downs limits his ability to impact games.

This is also something of a dream matchup for Garrett Nussmeier — at least on paper. While Vanderbilt is 13th in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.16), the team is outside the top 100 in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.15). The Commodores are also pretty bad about giving up explosives, and they’re not great at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That’s big in this specific matchup, as Nussmeier can put deep-balls on the money. And if he doesn’t have to worry as much about his shaky offensive line, he could do some big things in this game.

Vanderbilt is also just 2-16 SU under Lea when taking on opponents that throw for at least 250.0 yards per game. It’ll be interesting to see if the team can buck that trend here.

Lean: LSU ML (+105)

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.

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