Some readers may remember my work years ago handicapping horse races for Chicago-area tracks when my selections appeared in the sports section of the Chicago Tribune. Back then I was known as the guy who had written a computer program to analyze racing data and generate picks.

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Twenty years later, the technology has evolved dramatically — but the core idea hasn’t changed: Large sets of performance data often reveal patterns the human eye misses.

This season I decided to apply that same analytical mindset to college basketball. The result is what I call The Durbin Index — an AI-assisted model designed to evaluate NCAA Division I men’s basketball games and compare statistical projections to the betting market.

The system leans heavily on possession-based analytics, including offensive and defensive efficiency, pace adjustments, and performance splits that help isolate how teams actually play before late-game clock management distorts the numbers. From that data, the model generates projected scoring margins and expected totals for each matchup.

Those projections can be compared to the betting lines to identify situations where the numbers suggest potential value against the spread or total.  At tournament time, picking the winner is important for your bracket, but the rest of the projections can be useful in wagering.  

I built the Durbin Index during this season as an experiment in applying modern analytics to college basketball handicapping. And while my roots may be in horse racing models, it turns out I’m not a one-trick pony — the same disciplined, data-driven approach can translate to other sports as well.

March Madness is unpredictable by nature. No algorithm can eliminate that chaos. But the Durbin Index is designed to highlight the games where the numbers suggest the market may be slightly off.

👉 Here are my predictions for the NCAA Tournament — from the first round through the championship game.

I will be updating the model after the first round and will re-run the model for the second round. If you are interested in subsequent rounds, you can reach me at liam@e-ponies.com

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