Matt Youmans – NFL Week 7 Best Bets:

Here are my NFL Week 7 best bets.

Indianapolis at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

While the injuries pile up and continue to compromise the Los Angeles Chargers, quarterback Justin Herbert finds ways to fight off adversity. During his six-year career, Herbert has done just about everything but win a playoff game, but that’s a topic for another day.

With the Chargers and Broncos each at 4-2, and the Chiefs in hot pursuit at 3-3, the AFC West is likely to send three teams to the playoffs for the second straight year. The Chargers face the Colts, who top the AFC South standings at 5-1, on Sunday in L.A. Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones, who knows all about adversity, is putting together an impressive comeback season after the Giants and Vikings threw him out with the trash.

The Chargers’ path to victory starts with Herbert’s ability to overcome his offensive line’s protection problems. Left tackle Rashawn Slater was lost to a season-ending injury in August, forcing Joe Alt to move into that spot while Trey Pipkins took over at right tackle. But now Pipkins is out and Alt is doubtful with an ankle injury. In a 29-27 win at Miami last week, Herbert was sacked only once and passed for 264 yards and two touchdowns.

Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh’s plan to run the ball behind a physical line has suffered significant setbacks. With two running backs sidelined, including rookie first-round pick Omarion Hampton, the Chargers turned to 5-foot-8 Kimani Vidal against the Dolphins. Vidal answered the call by carrying the ball 18 times for 124 yards. Ladd McConkey is not going to draw comparisons to superstar receivers Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, but McConkey is Herbert’s top target and he came through with seven catches for 100 yards and a touchdown last week.

The Colts were exposed defensively a week ago, and the unlikely candidate to make that happen was Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who passed for 320 yards as the Cardinals totaled 400 yards and moved the ball way too easily.

Veteran safety Derwin James is the Chargers’ quarterback on the defensive side. To beat the Colts, James and the Chargers must contain Jonathan Taylor, the league’s leading rusher with 603 yards. Taylor has topped 100 yards three times and Indianapolis won all three games.

I do believe the Colts are legit, but I’m going with Herbert and Harbaugh, who’s 16-7 ATS since the beginning of last season. Another edge for the Chargers is Cameron Dicker, who’s 14-for-14 on field goals and has been the NFL’s most accurate kicker the past four years.

Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5

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Miami at Cleveland (-2.5)

With high winds and rain in the forecast for Cleveland, the total has dropped as low as 35.5 in this game, which figures to be ugly for both quarterbacks. The Browns will bank on running back Quinshon Judkins to grind down the Dolphins, who rank last in run defense (168.5 yards per game). It’s never easy to lay points with the Browns, but when you envision Tua Tagovailoa throwing wobbly passes in the wind and picture goofball coach Mike McDaniel standing on the Miami sideline, you can convince yourself to do it. With the total so low, it’s probably wise to consider laying the moneyline price (-140) instead of the points. 

Best Bet: Cleveland Browns -2.5

New York Giants at Denver (-7)

The Denver defense will likely make the Giants’ dynamic duo of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo look like rookies. The Broncos lead the league with 30 sacks, 10 more than any other team. Denver ranks near the top of the league in almost every defensive category, including No. 2 in scoring (15.8 ppg). Skattebo, a fourth-round pick from Arizona State, has averaged a combined 106.3 yards rushing and receiving in the past four games. The spot is less than ideal for the Broncos, who return from a Philadelphia-to-London trip, and second-year quarterback Bo Nix is slumping. Nix is not making many big plays, partly because coach Sean Payton’s play-calling has been dubious. I sense this will be a sweat-it-out game for several reasons, one reason being that I put one Circa Survivor entry on Denver.

Best Bet: New York Giants +7

Tampa Bay at Detroit (-5.5)

If the season ended today, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield should be the MVP. Mayfield ranks fourth in passing yards with 1,539 and has 12 touchdowns with one interception. He’s got Tampa Bay at 5-1 despite numerous injuries that should be slowing down the offense. The season does not end today, and the Lions’ Jared Goff should be the better quarterback on Monday night. Detroit ranks No. 2 in scoring offense (31.8 ppg) with Goff leading the league in completion percentage (75.9) while passing for 14 touchdowns. Since the beginning of last season, the Lions and Chargers share the best ATS mark in the NFL at 16-7. I’m expecting Detroit to win and cover in an entertaining shootout.

Best Bet: Detroit Lions -5.5

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