Week 8 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans

Here are my Week 8 college football best bets:

Penn State at Iowa (-3)

A team that started the college football season ranked No. 2 in the nation just opened Big Ten play at 0-3. James Franklin was not fired as Penn State coach solely because of what happened the past few weeks, however. Franklin’s downfall had been in motion for several years.

While he always talked about building an elite program and winning a national championship, “Big Game” James was falling woefully short. Under Franklin, for the record, the Nittany Lions went 4-21 versus Top 10 opponents, including 1-18 against Big Ten teams ranked in the Top 10 — and that lonely win came in 2016. Penn State’s three wins this season at the expense of lightweights Florida International, Nevada and Villanova left an empty feeling. Franklin was a bully who could beat bad and mediocre teams, but he was too small to step up against the heavyweights and his firing should come as no surprise.

With losses to Northwestern last week and UCLA the previous week, the Nittany Lions became the first team since 1978 to drop consecutive games as a favorite of 20 more points. The Purple Cats outgained Penn State 282-274 as Drew Allar passed for only 137 yards with an interception and exited the game with a season-ending broken ankle.

So where does Penn State go from here? Ignoring the coaching search for now, the question is more about the Nittany Lions’ ability to rally and salvage something from the season. With an interim coach, a new quarterback and no preseason goals left to possibly achieve, why would anyone expect this team to finish strong? Redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer, who has 11 pass attempts, is expected to take over for Allar.

After facing Iowa on Saturday in Iowa City, the Nittany Lions play at No. 1 Ohio State before hosting No. 3 Indiana. It should get worse before it gets any better, though many would argue the situation is already much better with Franklin out the door.

Considering the coaching casualties and high-profile coaches on the hot seat across the country, it’s remarkable that Kirk Ferentz is in his 27th year as Iowa coach. The Hawkeyes (4-2) have been impressive in their past two outings, winning 37-0 at Wisconsin a week ago after nearly knocking off Indiana in a 20-15 loss.

Iowa’s offense remains unimpressive with Mark Gronowski at quarterback, which is one reason the Hawkeyes could lose this game. Still, the ground attack and defense should be enough for Ferentz to grind out another ugly win. It’s tough to make the case that Penn State’s players will give an inspired effort.

Best Bet: Iowa -3

Purdue at Northwestern (-3)

Aside from the result, the Wildcats’ performance at Penn State was nothing remarkable. Preston Stone passed for 163 yards and Northwestern totaled 119 rushing yards (2.8 per attempt). The Boilermakers averaged 23.5 points in recent losses to Minnesota, Illinois, Notre Dame and USC. Purdue dominated the Golden Gophers on the road with a 456-262 advantage in total yards, but Ryan Browne threw two interceptions and Barry Odom’s team fell apart in the fourth quarter of a 27-20 loss. Odom is a highly motivated coach who’s hungry for a win and he’s seeing improvement. The Wildcats are typically a better bet in the underdog role and should be in a fade spot following the stunner at Penn State.

Best Bet: Purdue +3

Texas (-12.5) at Kentucky

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Arch Manning was good but not great in the Longhorns’ 23-6 victory over Oklahoma. Manning passed for 166 yards and ran for 34 yards on a day when the Texas defense did most of the work and exploited Sooners quarterback John Mateer’s hand injury. The Longhorns are riding an 0-6 ATS streak the week after the Oklahoma rivalry game. Kentucky coach Mark Stoops is off a bye and will throw a good defensive game plan at Manning to keep this close.

Best Bet: Kentucky +12.5

Florida State (-18) at Stanford

On the topic of coaches and the hot seat, Mike Norvell is back on it following Florida State’s three straight losses. The Seminoles’ defense is getting pushed around while quarterback Tommy Castellanos continues to be an erratic passer. Stanford is 2-0 at home and catches Florida State in what should be a flat spot. One thing the Cardinal can do is run the ball with Micah Ford behind a physical line, and that shortens the game for the double-digit underdog.

Best Bet: Stanford +18

Last week: 4-2-1 against the spread
Season: 21-18-4

For more college football Week 8 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 8 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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