Memphis vs. USF

After several nights of marquee games in power conferences, Thursday brings us a lot of quantity, but maybe not what a lot of people would consider quality. But, not us. We think it’s all quality, all the time. All college basketball games that you can bet on have some level of quality to them, even if we’re looking at a slate full of mid-major and low-major conferences. Arguably the “biggest” game of the night with name recognition is Memphis vs. USF, as the American will be a one-bid league and seedings will matter a lot in the conference tournament.

Right now, USF is the overwhelming favorite to win the American Conference regular season at -1200 per DraftKings and would subsequently be favored to win the automatic bid. The Bulls are a few plays away from being undefeated in conference play, as their three losses are by just five combined points. Memphis, meanwhile, has five losses total in American play. Bettors are backing the team from Tampa in this one with a move towards USF.

This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 18, 5:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

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Memphis vs. USF (-8.5, 156.5)

7 p.m. ET

The Tigers have played one of the nation’s most difficult schedules and Penny Hardaway was even insistent on getting a recent matchup with Utah State, saying that the team simply had to experience playing there. It was a true “be careful what you wish for” situation because the Tigers lost by 25 and fell a game below .500 for the season. There’s something to be said about scheduling up and trying to strengthen a team’s resume and profile, but you also have to make sure that you win enough games for an NCAA Tournament bid.

As things stand, Memphis is likely to go to 12-14 after this one and they’re going to have just one path into the Big Dance. So is South Florida, though, even though they have a much better record and a much better set of results, including a win over aforementioned Utah State. In fact, USF has a 2-3 record in Quadrant 1 games. Memphis has an 0-5 record, but four of those are Quadrant 1-A games. Only one of USF’s games qualify as Quadrant 1-A.

The Tigers do boast the top defense in the American, as the only team allowing under a point per possession from an adjusted defensive efficiency standpoint. They are also the best defense by eFG% and 3P%. Part of the equation is that Memphis has a 21.2% TO% on defense, but they’ve also turned the ball over 20% of the time, so they’ve squandered their opportunity to get some extra possessions. Given that they are shooting just 32.4% from 3, you can see how this is a team that shines in a variety of defensive areas, but still doesn’t have a very good record.

USF is a much stronger offensive team across the board, so this pretty much amounts to an offense vs. defense handicap. The Bulls are second in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play and fourth in 2P% and 3P% offense, which also has them fourth in eFG% offense. While the Bulls are not on Memphis’ level defensively, they are still in the upper half of the conference in most pertinent categories.

One really big difference between the two teams is that South Florida has the best 2P% defense in the conference and Memphis is 12th. As mentioned, Memphis struggles to shoot 3s and they try not to take a lot of them, but they may get pushed out of that comfort zone here in this matchup because they’re going to need to try and find creative ways to score points.

Memphis vs. USF Prediction

From a tempo standpoint, this is the kind of game that could end up featuring a lopsided score, but Memphis’ defensive prowess and USF’s good, but not great, statistical profile doesn’t seem to lend itself well towards a blowout in this game. All hands are on deck here for both teams and a renewed defensive effort for the Tigers after getting embarrassed by the Aggies should keep them within the number.

Pick: Memphis +8.5

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