The women’s Final Four games take place today, Friday the 3rd, which I wrote about yesterday here at VSiN.com. Now, it’s time for the men’s Final Four projections from the T Shoe Index, which features the Illinois Fighting Illini vs the U Conn Huskies, plus perhaps the most anticipated matchup of all time for KenPom disciples, between the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats – both of whom are top-5 KenPom teams of all time. I’ll have to do a retroactive refresh of my formula to tell you whether or not TSI agrees with that, but it’s not far-fetched. Now, for the projections:

Illinois (-1.5) vs. UConn, O/U 139.5

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Illinois is 24-8 on the season, and despite my bracket being terrible overall, I actually did have them in the national championship game. More on that in a minute. They’re taking on Dan Hurley’s 29-5 UConn squad that won on a miraculous buzzer beater against Duke after trailing most of the game. Illinois has covered all four of its spreads in the tournament, winning by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Huskies have been a little more fortunate and a little less dominant than the Illini, winning by just 8 points per game so far this tournament, but covering in three out of four games. TSI projects Illinois -5 with a total of 138 in this game, so I’m backing Illinois -1.5 here, both from a numbers standpoint and the fact this is a rare situational spot to fade UConn after such a memorable comeback.

Bet: Illinois -1.5

Michigan (-1.5) vs Arizona, O/U 157.5

For much of the season, this 31-2 Michigan squad looked like the best team in the country; however, they hit a stretch in February that had me doubting their ability to win a national championship in that form. They’ve quickly returned to form in this tournament and are winning by 22.5 points per game. They’re taking on, however, another team that had times where it looked like it was the best team in the country, in the 32-2 Arizona Wildcats. They’ve covered every game this tournament with a margin of victory of 20.5 points per game. These are two dominant teams about to collide on the biggest stage in college basketball. I mentioned my bracket earlier, and with the good comes the bad; while I had Illinois advancing to the national championship game, I had them losing to Arizona. TSI tells me that’s now wrong. TSI projects Michigan -2 with a total of 163.5. Although there doesn’t appear to be much value in the TSI number, it’s important to understand how the projection is made, with some parts season-long data and some parts recent form. The recent form component actually makes Michigan a 6 point favorite, so I’m going to lay the 1.5 with the Wolverines here.

Bet: Michigan -1.5
Lean: Over 157.5

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