Game: Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

Date: October 5th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

This week’s Carolina Panthers game will be their second straight matchup against an AFC East opponent, this time against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are coming off their first win of the season, a Monday night showdown against division rival New York Jets. Miami’s offense was steady throughout, and the defense held up just enough early to prevent the Jets from hanging around. The Panthers, on the other hand, entered last week with momentum but laid an egg against the New England Patriots. After the Patriots returned Sam Martin’s punt late in the 1st quarter, they never looked back, going on to score five more touchdowns while holding the Panthers to just one the rest of the way. It was essentially the reverse of what happened in Carolina’s win over the Falcons in week 3. In this week 5 matchup between two 1-3 teams, we’ll see which franchise shows more resilience heading into October.

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Weather

Weather this week may not cooperate with this game, as temperatures will range from the high 70s to low 80s, with a 55% chance of rain. Wind could also factor in, with averages around 8 mph and gusts reaching up to 22 mph.

Betting Overview

When looking at the betting market for this game, things have remained mostly the same. The spread opened with Miami as a 1.5-point favorite, with most sportsbooks holding that number and a few dipping to -1 in favor of the Dolphins. The moneyline hasn’t shifted much either, sitting around -115 to -120 for Miami and even to -105 for Carolina. The total has seen a slight dip, moving from 46.5 to between 44 and 45.5 depending on the sportsbook.

The public seems to favor Carolina here, with 54% of bets on the Panthers to cover, and the money backing Carolina at a 60% clip. Bets and money on the total are close to even, with action around 50/50 on both sides.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: When comparing these coaching staffs, it feels like we’re looking at mirror images. While Miami’s staff has been slightly more consistent than Carolina’s, I’ll give a small edge to the Panthers since they’re at home, and Ejiro Evero has done more with less on defense.

DLs vs. OLs: The battle in the trenches leans just a bit in favor of the Dolphins. The Panthers do have the stronger offensive line, but Miami’s defensive front matches up well with Carolina’s o-line, while the Panthers’ defensive line is not a strength.

QBs: In a matchup of two former Alabama quarterbacks, the edge goes to Tua Tagovailoa. While he has had his share of poor games, Tagovailoa has shown he can play at a much higher level than Bryce Young has reached so far in his career.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This matchup also tilts toward the Dolphins, largely because of how poor Carolina’s linebackers have been. Darren Waller and Devon Achane both stepped up in a big way this past Monday night, highlighting Miami’s advantage.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Tyreek Hill’s injury certainly dampens things for Miami. Tetairoa McMillan has been as advertised, and while Carolina could use more production from its receivers, I’ll give the Panthers a slight edge here. Neither secondary has been particularly strong.

Betting Trends

While the Dolphins are under .500 straight up, they sit right at .500 ATS at 2-2. This will be their first game as an away favorite, but they’re 1-1 ATS on the road this season. Last year, Miami was solid in games with a rest disadvantage, going 3-1 ATS. Totals have leaned toward the over in Dolphins games so far, cashing in 3 of 4. On the road, though, they’ve split with one over and one under. With a rest disadvantage last season, totals also split 2-2.

The Panthers also come into this matchup at 2-2 ATS, covering in their only home game this season. When Carolina had a rest advantage last year, they went just 1-2 ATS. Totals for the Panthers have also split 2-2 so far, with the under hitting in their lone home contest. Interestingly, when Carolina had a rest advantage last season, the over cashed in all 3 games.

Final Thoughts

This out-of-conference matchup should serve as a solid indicator of where these two teams may trend for the rest of the season. I don’t have a strong lean on either side covering or winning outright, but I do slightly favor the over hitting here at its current range of 44–45.5.