Miami OH vs. UMass

There are 365 teams in Division I college basketball. How many guesses would it take you to pick Miami of Ohio as the only undefeated team in the nation as of Feb. 17? Well, the Redhawks face one of their toughest tests of the season in a rematch with UMass on Tuesday night. The Redhawks won 86-84 back on Jan. 27, taking the lead for good with 4:19 left to play. It was a battle and Miami opened up as much as a seven-point lead in the final 150 seconds, but had to hold on for dear life in the end.

That was one of many close calls last month for the Redhawks, who also beat Buffalo by just a bucket on Feb. 3 in their last stiff road test. As they head to Amherst for this one against the Minutemen, six games remain in the regular season and the quest for perfection is only going to get more and more pressure-packed. This Miami OH vs. UMass matchup does not feature the biggest names on a really good card, but it sure has plenty of storylines to follow.

This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 16, 5:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

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Miami OH (-2.5, 164.5) vs. UMass

7 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

The Redhawks are 7-0 in games decided by six or fewer points, so they’ve been living right, but they also have the stats to back it up. Per Bart Torvik, the Redhawks are fourth in the nation in eFG% offense, third in 2P%, and 20th in 3P%. They make a ton of shots and are also shooting better than 77% at the free throw line, a hugely important skill when trying to polish off close victories. 

Miami was 28-of-38 at the free throw line in the first win over UMass, finishing +15 in free throw makes and +21 in free throw attempts. Certainly the end-game situation helped the foul shot disparity, but a lot of bettors are going to look at how UMass outscored Miami 71-58 from the floor and take that into consideration. That could be a big part of the reason why we are seeing this line swing in the direction that it is.

The first season as a member of the MAC has been an odd one for UMass. They are 6-7 in conference play following last Friday’s 99-92 loss to Akron, who is likely the best team in the conference despite Miami’s perfect record. This season could have swung a number of different ways for UMass, given that 15 of their 26 games have been decided by six or fewer points, including 10 of 13 MAC matchups. They are 6-9 overall in those games and 5-5 in the conference games.

Offensively, Frank Martin’s team has performed well in MACtion. Defensively? Not so much. The Minutemen are fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in eFG% offense in conference play per Torvik, but 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG%. Miami, meanwhile, leads the conference in both offensive categories and is third in adjusted defensive efficiency. Miami is sixth in eFG% defense, but boasts the best 3P% against at 32% in league games. UMass is shooting over 37% from 3, so that’s that key matchup to watch in this one.

There have been a lot of heroes for the Redhawks, which is what it takes to go 25-0, but they’ve been without third-leading scorer Evan Ipsaro since mid-December, forcing others to really step up. One such player is Luke Skaljac, who has 9.8 PPG, 4.7 APG, and 3.3 RPG while filling up the stat sheet in a variety of ways. He’s been a major glue guy for the Redhawks and did not play in that first game against UMass. Brant Byers, Peter Suder, and Eian Elmer, who are all shooting 41.7% or better from 3, are the stat standouts, but this is a Miami team with six players averaging double figures and Skaljac isn’t even one of them.

The Minutemen have a lot of balanced scoring as well, paced by Leonardo Bettiol with 17.6 PPG and 7.7 RPG. Marcus Banks Jr. has 16.9 PPG and is one of the team’s top shooters at 39.4% from deep. K’Jei Parker (11.9) and Daniel Hankins-Sanford (11.7) are the other double-digit hoopers and Parker has 51 points over his last two games, both of which he’s fouled out of.

Miami OH vs. UMass Basketball Prediction

UMass certainly has a knack for playing close games and the first one between these two could’ve gone either way. Miami doesn’t seem too pressured keeping up their perfect record of late, as they hammered Marshall by 16 on the road and then Ohio by 16 at home. The Redhawks are even shooting a higher percentage on 2s and 3s in conference play in their five road games compared to their seven home games. This one could be tight to the number and the Redhawks have been living right up to this point, but their higher frequency of 3-point shots and big advantage at the free throw line with a UMass team that fouls a lot will be two keys to victory.

Pick: Miami OH -2.5

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