In the No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Michigan vs. Alabama is the Sweet 16 game at 7:35 p.m. ET on Friday, March 27 with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

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How to Watch Michigan vs. Alabama

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When: 7:35 p.m. ET on Friday, March 27

Where: United Center in Chicago, IL

Watch: TBS/truTV

Odds for Michigan vs. Alabama

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Michigan -10.5 (-110), Alabama +10.5 (-110)

Total: Over 176.5 (-110), Under 176.5 (-110)

Michigan vs. Alabama Prediction & Preview

Alabama scoring 90 points in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games hardly comes as a shock, even without the services of second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, who was arrested on a drug charge prior to the start of the Big Dance. However, Michigan dropped a hundo on Howard and put 95 on the best defense in the nation by eFG% in the second round with a 23-point romp over Saint Louis. Now, the Wolverines have hardly been flawless, as their opponents are a combined 24-of-63 from 3 and Alabama is hoping that trend continues when these two teams meet up in Chicago.

It will be a pro-Michigan crowd in Big Ten country and this is where the Big Ten Conference Tournament was this season, so the Wolverines are plenty familiar with the setting. They won two close games before losing in the title game to Purdue. While this isn’t the Michigan team that went on a rampage in Las Vegas in the Players Era Festival beating San Diego State, Auburn, and Gonzaga by 110 combined points, this has still been one of the nation’s best from a metrics standpoint throughout the season.

We’ll have to see if Alabama’s “fire from anywhere” style is the great equalizer to all of Michigan’s height in this one. Staying away from 7-foot-3 Aday Mara in the paint is a good idea and 6-foot-9 wings Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. can both alter a lot of shots. It isn’t a vulnerability for Michigan by any means, as Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1-A opponents only shot 31.2% from 3, but it is something that can give Alabama life as it pertains to trying to pull off this upset.

Nate Oats is one hell of a coach and you can see how modern his team’s gameplan is. In those Q1 and Q1A games, Alabama took a 3-pointer nearly 20% more often than their opponents. However, with the pace of the game, one of the nation’s lowest TO%, and the inherent high-variance nature of shooting 3s, Alabama was just 7-7 in those games. Michigan, meanwhile, was 18-3. With six Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16, you have to wonder how much bettors will respect the stature of the conference and how this line may move as a result, not to mention the Wolverines’ dominance in games against elite-to-great competition.

That said, you can see the plan for Alabama. In two games in this tournament, they’ve taken 78 3-pointers and opponents have only taken 49. The Crimson Tide have also done yeoman’s work on the offensive glass to get some extra possessions out of the deal. Those will be harder to come by against Michigan and their glasswork against Texas Tech absolutely had a lot to do with the absence of JT Toppin.

If there is one area where Michigan is vulnerable, like most Big Ten teams, it’s that they don’t force a lot of turnovers. The Wolverines have been an excellent defensive team at the rim and a top-60 defensive team in those Q1/Q1A games in 3P%, but Alabama does play a different style of game than a lot of Big Ten foes. One of Michigan’s losses was to Wisconsin, one of eight teams that shoots a 3 over 51% of the time. Alabama shoots one almost 54% of the time. The Wolverines also had issues the Badgers in the Big Ten Tournament. Nebraska, another high 3P Rate team, gave them all kinds of trouble on Jan. 27 in Ann Arbor. So, there is a path for the Tide and it requires playing the style that they already play.

Estimated Score: TBD

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

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