MLB Best Bets Today May 30

After a light day with limited options on Thursday, all 30 teams are back in action on Friday, as we head into another weekend of the 2025 MLB season. Interleague play is limited this weekend, as we only have three series to think about, but the World Series rematch between the Yankees and Dodgers will be at the forefront of just about everybody’s mind. The Red Sox and Braves make for a good series, too.

We’ve got a real hodgepodge of pitchers today, as there are a handful of aces and frontline starters, but a lot of back-of-the-rotation arms as well. We also have more spot starters and bullpen games coming up today and through the weekend, as teams focus on navigating the 162-game gauntlet.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 30:

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 10)

6:45 p.m. ET

The Brewers and Phillies start up a weekend series here. I think some are expecting the Phillies to show some signs of wear and tear after playing a doubleheader yesterday against the Braves, while Milwaukee had a day off in Philly to just chill and rest up in anticipation of this series.

Even if that is the case, there are a lot of things I like about this spot for the Phillies. First, they’re getting DL Hall to start the game and my guess is that Aaron Ashby piggybacks in some sort of way. Even if it isn’t Ashby, the Brewers have five lefties in their bullpen, including Hall, so the Phillies, who rank sixth in wOBA against LHP with a .265/.336/.424 slash and eighth in wRC+ at 112 get the opportunity to hit on their stronger side of the split.

I know we all have opinions about Taijuan Walker and most of them are not good, but the Brewers are 25th in wOBA with a .236/.316/.370 slash and have some of the worst contact authority metrics in the league. They are 28th in Hard Hit% and 30th in Barrel%. The Phillies are sixth in HH%. But, back to the Brewers, who are also 21st in wOBA over the last 14 days, whereas the Phillies are fifth at .342, a 44-point difference between the two teams.

And, honestly, Walker has improved this season. He’s in the 85th percentile in Barrel% and 69th percentile in Hard Hit%, a nice change from last season. Walker had a 46.3% Hard Hit% and a 13.4% Barrel% last season, but some pitch usage changes have helped him to a 37.2% HH% and a 5.0% Barrel%.

We probably won’t see Bryce Harper here for the Phillies, but I’m still okay with backing them at a price tonight for the 1st 5. Their bullpen is a bit overworked from the Braves series and has been an adventure all season long.

Pick: Phillies 1st 5 -135

Sacramento Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (-185, 8.5)

7:07 p.m. ET

The Athletics had no chance on Thursday night, as Toronto played Home Run Derby against Jacob Lopez and Anthony Maldonado with four homers and 11 runs in the first three innings of a 12-0 win. We’ll see if things go differently tonight with Jeffrey Springs on the bump for the visitors.

Springs is a guy that I picked on last time out against the Phillies to give up a run in the first inning and he did. He owns a 6.75 ERA with a .250/.354/.536 slash and a .382 wOBA the first time through the order this season. To whittle it down even further, Springs had allowed a .306/.433/.735 slash in the first inning this season and has given up 18 runs in his 11 first innings. He’s given up seven stolen bases and has an 11/11 K/BB ratio. Maybe more importantly, he’s allowed five home runs, including two in road starts.

Springs has allowed a first inning run in three of six road starts, which is something I was worried about since the crux of my argument last week was how pitchers have complained about the mound in Sacramento and Springs does have some really big home/road splits to this point. He’s given up eight of those 18 first inning runs on the road and the Blue Jays are way better against lefties than they are against righties with a .323 wOBA and a 111 wRC+.

Chris Bassitt has also had some first-inning issues. He’s allowed 18 hits and three homers in the first inning, both highs by inning splits. He’s allowed a .346/.340/.577 slash. He does have a 16/0 K/BB ratio, but has given up six extra-base hits and nine total runs in 11 starts.

As mentioned, DraftKings lists First Inning Yes/No Runs as Over/Under 0.5 on the 1st Inning tab. So we’ll go Over 0.5 Runs at -120 here.

By the way, I do think a live Under might be a good bet if these guys struggle early. Both of them tend to settle in as the game goes along.

Pick: Athletics/Blue Jays YRFI (Over 0.5 Runs 1st Inning) -120

Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (-340, 7.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Rockies continue their road trip by opening up a series against the Mets. Colorado pitching held the Cubs to just nine runs at Wrigley Field from Monday-Wednesday and still got swept in the series. Now they take on a Mets team looking to bank some wins after going through a little bit of a rough patch.

Southpaws Kyle Freeland and David Peterson are the listed starters in this one. I have no interest in backing the Mets at -340, but there is an alternate way that I think we can take advantage of the Rockies’ futility while still backing New York. DraftKings offers Pitcher Win props and Peterson is -125. I went back and looked and the starting pitcher has been the winning pitcher 33 times in Colorado’s 47 losses. They’ve lost in walk-off fashion three times and there were some games where they were getting crushed, but the starter didn’t go five innings because of a return from injury.

Peterson has gone at least five innings in nine of his 10 starts and each of his eight starts since April 12. He’s gone at least six innings in four straight starts, including games against the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Dodgers, who are among the league’s top offenses. The Rockies are absolutely not among the league’s top offenses.

Peterson has a 2.79 ERA with a 3.72 xERA and a 3.40 FIP, so he’s been really good this season and has also done a terrific job of limiting the long ball. The Rockies are 28th in wOBA against LHP at .266 and dead last in wRC+ at 54. They are far and away the worst road offense in baseball with a .251 wOBA, batting .194/.256/.303. 

Freeland has a 5.86 ERA, though he does have a 3.42 FIP. He hasn’t been able to pitch out of jams and hasn’t consistently gotten enough swing and miss in his starts. In fact, after having a double-digit SwStr% in four of his first five starts, he’s only done it twice over his last six. And now he takes on a Mets lineup that ranks 10th in wOBA against LHP.

This is a soft spot on the schedule for the Mets before a rematch with the Dodgers begins on Monday, so they should be focused to go out and play well.

Pick: David Peterson (NYM) To Record A Win (-125)

San Francisco Giants (-175, 8.5) at Miami Marlins

7:10 p.m. ET

The Giants and Marlins fire up a weekend set down in South Florida, as San Francisco hopes to get the offense going on the road. They are 17-9 at home, but just 14-15 on the road following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers. The Giants scored just five runs over the three games in that series and they only scored seven runs in the three games against the Nationals to begin this roadie.

It will be Kyle Harrison for the visitors and Cal Quantrill for the hosts. Harrison is making his second start after taking over Jordan Hicks’ rotation spot. He allowed two runs on five hits in four innings against the Nationals with four strikeouts and zero walks. All in all, it was a good effort, but he did allow a 53.8% Hard Hit% out of 13 batted balls and he’s allowed a 58.3% HH% in 24 batted ball events thus far, as he had four MLB relief appearances before moving back into the rotation.

The Marlins are actually fairly competent against lefties relative to their peers, as their .298 wOBA ranks 14th in baseball. The Giants are just 25th in wOBA on the road against righties and Quantrill has been throwing the ball a lot better of late. He was rocked over his first six starts to the tune of an 8.10 ERA with a 5.55 FIP, as he faced the Mets, Braves, Nationals, Phillies, Mariners, and Dodgers, so a murderer’s row of offensive upside.

Over his last four starts, though, against the Dodgers, Cubs, Rays, and Angels, he’s allowed just six runs on 13 hits over 17.2 innings of work. In that stretch of 47 batted balls, Quantrill has only allowed a 36.2% Hard Hit% and just a 4.3% Barrel%.

I’m willing to take the plus-money shot with the Marlins for the 1st 5 in this one. Quantrill’s velo has ticked up a little as the season has gone along and the Giants are really scuffling with the sticks right now.

Pick: Marlins 1st 5 (+130)

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