MLB Best Bets Today June 2

Seven games are on the MLB card for Monday, as a new week begins on the diamond. There are no interleague games today, but only three of the seven games feature division rivals. To this point, the league-wide offensive numbers still look very similar to 2022 and 2024, so we aren’t really seeing more or less power production. The league-wide BB% is up from those two seasons at 8.6%, but it is 8.2% over the last 14 days, so we might be seeing a correction there.

It is worth noting, though, that the league-wide HR/FB% is 11.1%. That would be the lowest since 2013. I guess we’ll see if power production goes up as warmer weather sets in, but given that we’ve ditched a couple of the league’s top pitchers’ parks in Oakland and Tampa Bay and we’re still lagging behind, I’m curious to see if that will actually be the case.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 2:

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (-148, 9.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

Tyler Anderson and Richard Fitts are the listed starters here as the Red Sox welcome the Angels to Fenway Park. I’m looking to fade Anderson in this spot.

Anderson enters with a 3.39 ERA, 3.94 xERA, and a 5.19 FIP over 61 innings of work. He doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts and has a below average walk rate, as Statcast has him in the 22nd percentile for K% and 39th percentile for BB%. While he does grade well in terms of average exit velocity and Hard Hit%, he’s a fly ball pitcher who has surrendered 11 long balls thus far.

Not surprisingly, Anderson has been substantially better at home than on the road this season. He has a 2.34 ERA at home over 34.2 innings with a .267 wOBA against and a 4.78 ERA with a .347 wOBA against in 26.1 innings on the road. Away from Anaheim, Anderson has just a 16.1% K% and an 11.9% BB%. Walks and pitching to contact are typically not great at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox are seventh in wOBA against LHP over the last 30 days and for the full season. As you would expect, they are a top-five offense at home. Anderson actually has a 4.12 ERA with a 5.44 FIP over his last seven starts and only has 25 K in those 39.1 innings. This should be a good matchup for the Boston offense, so I like Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at -115.

Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)

Minnesota Twins (-162, 9.5) at Sacramento Athletics

10:05 p.m. ET

It should be a great night for hitting at Sutter Health Park as the Twins and Athletics do battle. Luis Severino can’t be thrilled to see tonight’s weather forecast, as he has a 6.20 ERA over 40.2 innings in Sacramento with a .337 wOBA against. A lot of pitchers have complained about the park and the mound conditions and it sure seems like Severino has had a hard time getting comfortable. After all, he has a 0.87 ERA over 31 innings on the road with a wOBA that is 120 points lower.

Joe Ryan has been excellent this season, but this is not an ideal setup for him. Winds blowing out on a warm day in a ballpark that has been excellent for offense don’t bode well for a guy with a 13.6% Barrel% and extreme fly ball tendencies. Collectively, hitters own a .274/.347/.464 slash in Sacramento this season over 28 games.

Ryan has had major blow-ups in the past in these types of park and weather conditions because he throws a lot of strikes and induces so many fly balls. Places with good carry can be really tricky for him. Not surprisingly, his worst start this season came in Atlanta when he allowed six runs on eight hits, including three homers, over five innings of work back on April 20.

The Athletics pitching staff has the lowest GB% in the league at 36.2% and the Twins pitcher staff has the fourth-lowest at 38.5%, so this could be a series full of runs. The Twins bullpen, however, is pretty good at inducing grounders, as they rank eighth in MLB in that department and ninth in HR/9.

So, I’m looking at the 1st 5 Over 4.5 at -135 here, along with Ryan Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed at +100. The Twins bullpen got a lot of high-leverage work in against the Mariners, so I think Rocco Baldelli is hoping for a little length from Ryan and may push him a bit too far here.

Picks: Twins/Athletics 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-135); Joe Ryan (MIN) Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)

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