MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for June 23:

As I promised earlier on my X.com account, here is another weekly MLB Bullpen Systems update. Typically, when the “easiest system” produces a profit in a given week, most or all of the other angles wind up in the black as well. That wasn’t necessarily the case this past week, as it was quite the mixed bag. For the most part, the results weren’t that impactful either way, but I can share some details of some very interesting performances by the new ultimate scenario correlation system, as well as the worse bullpen teams trying to extend winning streaks angle. That will be part of this weekly bullpen update below, as will the highlighting of some teams headed downward in my bullpen ratings, teams that were once very hot in that regard. 

If you were to speak to most baseball bettors, handicappers, and even the books themselves, Most would prefer the underdog side of things more often when it comes to betting on baseball. The dangers associated with a team simply not caring enough about one of 162 games in the middle of a rigorous campaign and priced very highly simply outweigh the benefits. 

I found a particular angle in which favorites are far more reliable than usual. I have referred to it as the ultimate scenario. It basically describes a situation in which one team has lofty Steve Makinen ratings for both the starting pitcher and the bullpen, and the other team does not meet these criteria. The benchmarks are detailed in the system below, but I can share them with you now. After another highly profitable week, this combination has produced 39.23 units of profit for the season and 11.27 over the last two weeks since I introduced it. Hopefully, those of you using the MLB Analytics Reports every day have benefited like I have.

The other angle that comes off a huge week is a longer-running system that I have tracked for several years. It has been referred to as “Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks” on the daily reports. Surprisingly, after being a fairly consistent producer for me in recent seasons, it has been a slow starter this year. Hopefully, that all changed this past week when the teams that qualified went 5-10 for -8.32 units, it’s worst week of the year. We are almost in negative territory as usual, as this is a common fade system that bettors have come to rely on. 

The law of gravity is an idiom stating that what goes up must come down. It is something that eventually affects all the teams in my bullpen ratings as well. If you look below at the biggest downward movers this past seven days, you will find five teams that have been elite bullpens for much of the 2025 season. If it proves anything, it’s that bullpen performance can waiver, and it can turn on a dime as well. It’s why I am sure to include momentum in my thinking as I make adjustments each day. Those struggling teams currently include the likes of Minnesota, LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay, and Houston. The recent hot weather can impact bullpen performance greatly too, especially if those relief staffs have been overworked early this season. The Dodgers currently rank #1 in the league in bullpen innings usage per game at 4.4 IP/G. 

Below are the updated system numbers for all the bullpen angles. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. Oddsmakers just don’t account for them as much as starting pitching, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more. 

Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it. 

Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 6/22:

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 549-466 for +3.93 units and an ROI of 0.4% so far in the regular season. While around +4 units may not sound extraordinary, when you consider that 1,015 games have qualified on such a simple idealistic angle, to have any profit is commendable. Furthermore, to get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -61 units. 

It’s been a solid nearly first three months of the season overall for the MLB Bullpen Systems, as we are still profitable on 1,015 games wagered. However, I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these daily, and as you can see, they are still faring well. 

These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports. I have named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking: 

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 30-30 for -9.2 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -15.3%, and it’s proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 80-97 for -19.03 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.8%.

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 175-92 for +39.23 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +14.7%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle has gone 28-10 for +11.47 units since I introduced it two weeks ago.

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 80-164 for -35.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.6%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid. 

** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 101-62 for +26.27 units, and an ROI of 16.1%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. We lost -2.97 units last week, however. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 58-23 for +6.51 units. This remains an uncustomary winning year for this angle, although we are getting closer to the red after another -3.17 units week this past seven days.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 86-27 for +16.74 units, a ROI of 14.8%. 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 58-23 for +5.15 units, but after a -3.91 units week, we are just a couple of losses away again from going into the usual negative territory. 

Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. We are well in the black again, but we’ve given back -1.38 units the past two weeks. For the season, the record is now 200-227 for +12.33 units, ROI +2.9%..

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, and are struggling to get back in the black, 164-188 for -8.89 units. 

Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 106-110 for -1.43 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (55-53, +1.09 units) are somewhat surprising. That said, these teams had their worst week of the season last week, going 5-10 for -8.32 units, and we are almost in negative territory finally. 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 112-88 for -1.05 units, even after having recovered from a very slow start.

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 61-53 for -7.25 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far. 

Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Remember, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers. 

Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.

Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 6/22) 

Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.63
2. HOUSTON: 3.28
3. SAN DIEGO: 3.29
4. TAMPA BAY: 3.29
5. NY METS: 3.34 

Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.94
29. WASHINGTON: 5.92
28. LA ANGELS: 5.3
27. ARIZONA: 5.25
26. PHILADELPHIA: 4.63 

Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.1
2. HOUSTON: 1.14
3. TORONTO: 1.16
4. TEXAS: 1.19
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.22 

Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.62
29. WASHINGTON: 1.57
28. LA ANGELS: 1.53
27. COLORADO: 1.45
26. ARIZONA: 1.43 

Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.59
2. TORONTO: 10.05
3. BALTIMORE: 9.86
4. NY YANKEES: 9.59
5. ATHLETICS: 9.43 

Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.48
29. COLORADO: 7.57
28. MIAMI: 7.63
27. ST LOUIS: 7.68
26. DETROIT: 7.68 

Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SEATTLE: 0.78
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.83
3. TEXAS: 1.03
4. BOSTON: 1.06
5. ST LOUIS: 1.07 

Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. MINNESOTA: 2.28
29. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.68
28. CINCINNATI: 1.67
27. SAN DIEGO: 1.62
26. NY METS: 1.54 

I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.

Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 6/16: 

Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. SEATTLE: +10 points
2. BOSTON: +8
3. ATLANTA: +7
3. LA ANGELS: +7
3. NY YANKEES: +7 

Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. MINNESOTA: -12 points
2. LA DODGERS: -10
2. CHICAGO CUBS: -10
4. TAMPA BAY: -8
5. HOUSTON: -7
5. WASHINGTON: -7

Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/23)

Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. HOUSTON: 27
2. TEXAS: 26
3. NY YANKEES: 25
4. CHICAGO CUBS: 25
5. SAN FRANCISCO: 25
6. BALTIMORE: 23
7. ATLANTA: 20
8. BOSTON: 20
9. SAN DIEGO: 17
10. CLEVELAND: 17
11. TAMPA BAY: 15
12. TORONTO: 14
13. MILWAUKEE: 12
14. KANSAS CITY: 10
15. MINNESOTA: 7
16. DETROIT: 6
17. SEATTLE: 6
18. MIAMI: 6
19. ST LOUIS: 5
20. PITTSBURGH: 5
21. NY METS: 4
22. CINCINNATI: 4
23. LA DODGERS: 3
24. LA ANGELS: -3
25. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -3
26. PHILADELPHIA: -7
27. ARIZONA: -11
28. COLORADO: -17
29. WASHINGTON: -28
30. ATHLETICS: -30 

These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.

As we head into this week’s games, there is only one team on a 3+ game winning streak (MIL) and one team on a 3+ game losing skid (MIN). If you recall, last week there were nine on each, an incredibly high amount. All of those streaks ended at some point in the last seven days.

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