MLB Futures/Awards Update

People will say that the All-Star Break represents the end of the first half of the MLB season, but we are well past that point. There are 162 games and every team in baseball has played at least 95 games. I’m not that great at math, but I know that 95 is higher than 81.

So, in reality, more like 59% or so of the season is complete, but we do still have plenty to be decided in the playoff races and the awards markets. The MLB Trade Deadline is coming up on Thursday, July 31 at 6 p.m. ET and we’re going to see some teams continue to play hard until the bitter end and others that have that trip to Cancun already planned out.

While we are past the midpoint, but we don’t have any games to worry about, I’m going to check in on the futures markets for World Series odds, division odds, season win totals, and then awards with this “midseason” update.

2025 World Series Odds

  • Los Angeles Dodgers +255
  • New York Yankees +650
  • Detroit Tigers +700
  • Philadelphia Phillies +850
  • New York Mets +900
  • Houston Astros +950
  • Chicago Cubs +1200
  • Toronto Blue Jays +2000
  • Seattle Mariners +2000
  • Milwaukee Brewers +2500
  • San Francisco Giants +2800
  • San Diego Padres +3500
  • Boston Red Sox +3500
  • Tampa Bay Rays +5000
  • Texas Rangers +6500
  • Minnesota Twins +7000
  • St. Louis Cardinals +9000
  • All others +11000 or higher

Before winning their final two games entering the Break, the Dodgers had lost seven in a row, getting swept by both Houston and Milwaukee. And they still entered the Break with the best record in the NL. If healthy enough come October, there’s no excuse for them not to win it all. Resistance from the Phillies seems plenty reasonable with their starting pitching prowess. I’m not sure that either the Mets or the Cubs have enough pitching to hold the Dodgers down over an extended series, but the Cubs have had a good offense all season long and the Mets have shown flashes.

The AL is much more open. The Tigers have been the big story of the first half and Tarik Skubal is running away with the AL Cy Young Award, but it’s obviously fair to wonder if they can keep up their offensive performance. They should be buyers, though, which could absolutely help add more depth to the bullpen and even the lineup. Houston is a very right-handed-heavy group dealing with injuries to Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena, who will strengthen the lineup when they get back. It also seems like Houston will hold onto impending free agent Framber Valdez.

The AL East is very up for grabs. I do like the Blue Jays a lot, especially if they can get another starting pitcher and a reliever or two at the Deadline. I’ll look more at the Trade Deadline on Wednesday and examine who’s available and who is the best fit. The Yankees are still so Aaron Judge dependent, and now they’re down Clarke Schmidt along with Gerrit Cole. Max Fried has been the best free agent signing of the season.

If I was to make a bet into the World Series futures market, it would be the Boston Red Sox at 35/1. They have the prospect currency to make a huge impact deal. Alex Bregman just returned. They’ll get Tanner Houck back shortly. They’ve tapped into what made Lucas Giolito so good a few seasons ago. Garrett Crochet remains elite. The offense is really, really good. There are enough rental starting pitchers out there to get a deal done without giving up one of the big three – Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell – that can improve the rotation. There’s some good value on that number.

2025 Division Odds

Here are the favorites as we look ahead to Friday:

AL East: Yankees -120

AL Central: Tigers -3000

AL West: Astros -370

NL East: Phillies -135

NL Central: Cubs -220

NL West: Dodgers -1400

Is there any value on one of the non-favorites? I think there are a couple of teams.

I like the Seattle Mariners at +310. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert should be rounding into form and this is still a top-10 offense with room for improvement at the Trade Deadline. Seattle does have a five-game handicap to make up and only six head-to-head meetings to do it, but Houston is overachieving a bit right now in my eyes. By BaseRuns record, which is a context-neutral standings metric, the Mariners should have a one-game lead at present and that’s with limited impact from two of their best starters.

I think the Milwaukee Brewers at +190 are interesting as well. So are the Toronto Blue Jays at +170 to a degree, though it is worth pointing out that the Blue Jays are +44 in run differential at home and -27 on the road, whereas the Brewers are actually a .500 team on the road, but +46 in run differential. Milwaukee is so good at isolating talent, whether it’s internal or external, so I think they’ll make some shrewd trades, like the one they’ve already made with Andrew Vaughn. Brandon Woodruff is back, Jacob Misiorowski is up, and they run deep on the pitching side. 

The Cubs have been impressive, but Matthew Boyd now has the most innings he’s thrown since 2019 and more than he’s thrown in the last two seasons combined. Justin Steele is out for the year. They could make a splashy move, but I think they’re the most vulnerable NL division leader.

2025 MLB Adjusted Season Win Totals

I really like looking at adjusted season win total odds at the All-Star Break. There are a lot of predictive standings metrics out there like Pythagorean Win-Loss record (based on run differential), BaseRuns, and 3rd Order Win% (win% adjusted for quality of opponent). Also, there are some teams that will be clear-cut sellers, some that will fire their managers, some that are in complete and utter disarray already, and some that will get to that point.

But, there are also some underachievers that have the chance to rise up and start playing to the level that we would expect. With that in mind, here are a few bets that I like:

Arizona Diamondbacks Under 79.5 Wins (+100)

With a crowded Wild Card race in the AL, sellers might be at a little bit of a premium. The Diamondbacks should be one from the top-heavy NL. They have easily the most interesting crop of impending free agents with Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, and Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks may opt to hold on to them and hope for the best with a competitive balance draft pick, but I think they can get a pretty substantial haul for that collection of players.

Selling would basically signal the end of the season and that has a negative trickle-down effect throughout the clubhouse, but it is in Arizona’s best interest, especially with Corbin Burnes out for part of next season. They need to inject more young talent into the ballclub to make another run in a couple years.

St. Louis Cardinals Under 84.5 Wins (-120)

The Cardinals are well behind the Cubs and Brewers. While they are very much in the Wild Card hunt, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley, and Erick Fedde are all impending free agents. So is Phil Maton. I’m not sure teams will be terribly excited about the prospects of Mikolas, but Matz, Helsley, Fedde, and Maton will all have some interest. St. Louis shed nearly $40 million off their Opening Day payroll from 2024 to 2025 and their seven highest-paid players are all on the wrong side of 30.

This is a team entering something of a rebuilding phase and it is absolutely in their best interest to bump up the timelines for some of their position players and arms in the minors to try and close the gap with their NL Central brethren.

Philadelphia Phillies Over 93.5 Wins (-105)

The Phillies still have 24 games left against NL East opponents, in a season where the Marlins are likely to sell guys like Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara and the Braves are not at all what we expected them to be. The Nationals fired their manager and GM. So, those are all positives for interdivision games, even if the remaining games against the Mets could be tough.

The Phillies are on a 93-win pace right now, but President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has always been an active Trade Deadline guy and has been extremely persuasive with getting ownership to spend heavily in pursuit of a championship. They have the deepest rotation in baseball and really only a couple of outfield needs at the Deadline. I fully anticipate that they will fill them.

2025 MLB Awards Markets

AL MVP

  • Aaron Judge -650
  • Cal Raleigh +370
  • Tarik Skubal +8000
  • Ceddane Rafaela +10000
  • Bobby Witt Jr. +10000
  • Riley Greene +10000
  • All others +12000 or more
Embed from Getty Images

Unless Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh get hurt, one of the two will win. You could put some pizza money on a long shot if you really want to in the event that happens. I don’t see an option I prefer.

NL MVP

  • Shohei Ohtani -1100
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong +700
  • Juan Soto +2000
  • Kyle Tucker +5000
  • Ketel Marte, James Wood +6000
  • Pete Alonson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Francisco Lindor +6500
  • Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Elly De La Cruz +7500
  • All others +9000 or higher

Once again, it is Ohtani’s award to lose, especially since he has returned to the mound. Crow-Armstrong actually has more fWAR than Ohtani because he’s playing a premier defensive position. If Ohtani wasn’t such a unicorn, 7/1 would have excellent value.

I do think Juan Soto at 20/1 is really interesting. He hit 11 homers in June with a .322/.474/.722 slash and a 230 wRC+. The slow start is in the rearview and he’ll get some attention if the Mets can get ahead and stay ahead of the Phillies.

AL Cy Young

  • Tarik Skubal -200
  • Garrett Crochet +240
  • Jacob deGrom +900
  • Hunter Brown +1100
  • Max Fried +2500
  • Framber Valdez +4500
  • All others +7500 or higher

Crochet’s recent run has shrunk Skubal’s lead in the odds a little bit. But, the Tigers still have 25 games left against the AL Central, so Skubal will have the chance to feast in those games, whereas Crochet may run into some tough AL East assignments the rest of the way. I’d be worried about deGrom’s durability as we keep rolling forward and Brown just doesn’t have enough to get past Skubal or Crochet.

I do think Fried at 25/1 is worth a second look. Another Yankees starter is down and he’s going to get a lot of respect for what he’s doing in a major market in the face of some rotation adversity.

NL Cy Young

  • Zack Wheeler -125
  • Paul Skenes -105
  • Cristopher Sanchez +2000
  • Logan Webb +3000
  • Ranger Suarez, MacKenzie Gore +5000
  • All others +5500 or higher

The 35-year-old Wheeler is probably running out of time to win this award, while Skenes has a lot of years ahead of him. Wheeler has been so good and so consistent for such a long time, yet he’s never won one. I do believe that the voters give him the nod this season if he stays healthy. He’ll have all the counting stats and probably ends up on the NL East champs.

AL Rookie of the Year

  • Jacob Wilson +110
  • Cam Smith +140
  • Nick Kurtz +350
  • Roman Anthony +2500
  • Jasson Dominguez +3000
  • Carlos Narvaez +3500
  • Marcelo Mayer +6000
  • Jack Leiter, Shane Smith, Will Warren +7000
  • Jac Caglianone, Noah Cameron +8000
  • All others +9000 or higher

Jacob Wilson and Carlos Narvaez are tied for the lead in fWAR as we head into this weekend. Wilson’s been dealing with a hand injury, so I’m curious to see how that goes. Narvaez is older and has more pro ball seasons, whereas Wilson had topped out at 81 games up until this season. I do worry about fatigue. Of course, Narvaez is also a catcher with a max of 106 games played. Still, I think +3500 is worthy of a look. 

I’ve often talked about this, but voters want to be able to tell a story based off of their decision. A catcher hasn’t won Rookie of the Year since Sandy Alomar in 1990. 

I will say, though, that the fewest home runs for a ROY hitter over the last decade, excluding the COVID season, is 19. Nick Kurtz is almost there already. Narvaez only has eight homers. Wilson has nine. Smith has seven. Maybe that +350 price is what we need to be looking at?

NL Rookie of the Year

  • Jacob Misiorowski -210
  • Drake Baldwin +350
  • Agustin Ramirez +1200
  • Hyeseong Kim +1500
  • Chase Burns +2000
  • Isaac Collins +3000
  • Chad Patrick +3500
  • Mick Abel, Ben Casparius, Matt Shaw, Dylan Crews +5000
  • Dalton Rushing, Bubba Chandler, Brady House, Cade Horton, Logan Henderson +5500
  • All others +6000 or higher

Baldwin has hit 11 home runs for the Braves, so he has a chance at reaching a number that is eye-catching enough for voters, unless they change their minds. Ramirez has hit 14, but his other numbers aren’t nearly good enough.

Misiorowski only threw 97.1 innings last season and 71.1 innings in 2023. He’s 23 years old and has already thrown 89 this season. I think the Brewers will be very careful with him, especially since they can just call up Chad Patrick. If he throws, say, 60 MLB innings, is that enough? The fewest innings for a starting pitcher to win ROY has been the 133 that Skenes had last season.

I actually like a long shot here in Caleb Durbin at 60/1. After a miserable May, Durbin owns a .308/.400/.421 slash with a .366 wOBA and a 138 wRC+ since June 1. He’s also playing a really good third base. He’s definitely worth a deeper dive. He won’t get to 19 home runs, but he might get to 20 steals on a team that could win its division.

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