MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 31.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

12:10 PM Eastern

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds 

Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante is in a rough patch, with at least four runs allowed in each of his past four starts. For the season, he has a 5.44 ERA with only 6.2 strikeouts and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 4.06 ERA this season. He enters in his best form of the season with zero or one run allowed in five of his past six starts.

Picks: Reds Moneyline -130 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -149 and Total 9.3)

1:35 PM Eastern

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox 

Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito owns a 3.47 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings, but he owns a 2.31 ERA across his past 14 starts. Giolito is backed up by a bullpen whose 3.41 ERA ranks third in the league. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has a 4.35 ERA, though his fielding independent is 3.77 with 0.9 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that is last in the league with 3.6 runs per game.

Picks: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -1.5 -119 and Total 8.6)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays  

Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer has had issues allowing hard contact this season, posting a 3.82 ERA, but he has a 4.65 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this season, posting a 3.10 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a Brewers lineup whose 5.6 runs per game away from home leads the league.

Picks: Brewers Moneyline +108 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -125 and Total 8.1)

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1:40 PM Eastern

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians 

Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller has struggled this season with a 5.96 ERA with four walks and 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He has allowed eight runs and five home runs in 10 innings across two starts since coming off of the injured list. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is on a bad run, with at least four runs allowed in each of his past five starts. For the season, he owns a 4.73 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings, but that drops to a 3.58 ERA with one home run per nine innings allowed at home this season.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline +107 (Greg’s Handicap Guardians Moneyline -132)

2:10 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox 

Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil has had command issues this season, posting up 6.4 walks, but he has just a 3.75 ERA with only 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 26th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. White Sox starting pitcher Martin Perez has battled injuries all season, but has been great when he’s been able to get on the mound. He has a 2.04 ERA with only one home run allowed across his 35 1/3 innings pitched this season.

Pick: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)

4:05 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Athletics 

Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has been more than solid this season with 9.6 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks sixth in ERA at 3.61. At the plate, the Rangers have been averaging nearly 5.3 runs per game since the beginning of July, though they now have Corey Seager, Evan Carter, and Marcus Semien are all currently on the injured list. Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has given up a lot of hard contact with a 4.96 ERA and 1.9 home runs per nine innings, but is getting 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

Picks: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +105 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -1.5 -111 and Total 9.2)

7:00 PM Eastern

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 

Braves starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep has impressed since getting called up to the MLB level, allowing no home runs and just three total runs in 30 innings across five appearances. Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo appears due for positive regression on his 4.23 ERA, supplying a 3.08 fielding independent with 10.6 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)

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