MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 11.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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1:05 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker last season had a 4.08 ERA, but a 5.07 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings while getting only 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt posted a 5.23 ERA with a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed last season and faces a Phillies lineup that was third in scoring at home with 5.3 runs per game, while the Diamondbacks were fourth in run scoring last season with 4.9 runs per game, but also 27th in bullpen ERA at 4.82.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)

1:10 PM Eastern

Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers

While Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk does a nice job with his command, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 1.1 walks per nine innings, he had a 4.17 ERA due in large part to getting only 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings, while Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize had a 3.87 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed last season, but gets to face a Marlins lineup that was 27th in the league in home runs per at-bat.

Tigers Moneyline -134 (Greg’s Handicap Tigers -166)

2:20 PM Eastern

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs

Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera is coming off a nice 2025 season in which he posted a 3.53 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed and has begun this season with two hits and no runs allowed across 11 2/3 innings, while Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has been dynamic since getting called up to the big leagues in 2025, posting a 2.64 ERA with nine strikeouts and just 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed. Though the Pirates offense has begun 2026 much better than last season, the team is still coming off a 2025 season in which they were last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game.

Cubs Moneyline -134 and Over 6.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs Moneyline -165 and Total 7.9)

3:07 PM Eastern

Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays starting pitcher Eric Lauer had a nice 2025 season, posting a 3.18 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings, while Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan had a solid 3.42 ERA and 3.74 fielding independent last season, but did allow 1.4 home runs per nine innings and has had issues throughout his career keeping the ball in the yard on the road, with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home for his career. He is backed up by a bullpen that last season was 26th in ERA at 4.60.

Blue Jays Moneyline -105 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -136 and Total 8.4)

4:10 PM Eastern

Athletics vs. New York Mets

Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez had a 4.08 ERA last season with 11 strikeouts per nine innings, but had huge home and road splits, as his ERA shrunk to 2.64 at home compared to 5.40 away from home, with about 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road last season. Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga looks to have his swing-and-miss stuff back after getting just 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings last season, recording 16 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings to start this season, but has issued over four walks per nine innings since the start of the 2025 season. The Mets lineup should also benefit from facing an Athletics bullpen that was 24th in ERA last season at 4.53.

Mets Run Line -1.5 +145 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Mets -1.5 +102 and Total 8.1)

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4:15 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds

Angels starting pitcher George Klassen makes his second career MLB start after allowing two runs in 2 2/3 innings. In 2025, he had a 5.22 ERA with 3.9 walks per nine innings at the minor league level. Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson missed the entire 2025 season and has a lifetime 4.42 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. The Angels were fourth in the league in home runs per at-bat last season, but also had a bullpen that ranked 28th in ERA at 4.82.

Reds Moneyline -125 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -176 and Total 9.6)

7:10 PM Eastern

Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison last season had a 4.04 ERA, but just a 3.72 fielding independent with 9.6 strikeouts and one home run per nine innings allowed. Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin is back at the MLB level after three years in Japan, and while his ERA is 2.70 since returning, he has a 4.75 fielding independent with three home runs allowed in 11 innings and is backed up by a bullpen that was last in ERA at 5.59 last season.

Brewers Run Line -1.5 +135 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 +105 and Total 8.4)

7:15 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles

Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has always had notable home and road splits, posting a 2.90 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings in his career in San Francisco, with that ERA rising to 3.96 away from home. Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has had a rough start to the 2026 season, posting a 14.21 ERA with six walks and 10 runs allowed across 6 1/3 innings in his first two starts, and is supported by a bullpen that ranked 25th in ERA last season at 4.57.

Giants vs. Orioles Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.3)

8:40 PM Eastern

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres

Padres starting pitcher German Marquez faces his old team after posting a 6.70 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed, but is now supported by a bullpen whose 3.06 ERA led the league last season. He faces a Rockies lineup that was last in road scoring last season with 2.8 runs per game. Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner missed much of last season due to injury, but between 2024 and 2025 pitched better than his 4.53 ERA would indicate, with a 4.19 fielding independent and 1.1 home runs and three walks per nine innings allowed across 36 starts in that stretch. He is backed by a bullpen that entered Friday ninth in ERA at 2.98.

Rockies vs. Padres Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)

9:40 PM Eastern

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo had a career-low 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings last season, but also a career-best 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed and was at his best at home, posting a 2.60 ERA at home compared to a 4.70 ERA away from home. Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. posted a 6.51 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 6.3 walks per nine innings allowed after missing the entire 2023 and 2024 seasons, and the Astros bullpen is currently without closer Josh Hader, while the Mariners ranked ninth in ERA last season at 3.72.

Mariners Moneyline -134 (Greg’s Handicap Mariners -158)

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