Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons

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James Cook (over 72.5 rush yards -111): James Cook and the Buffalo Bills enter this Monday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons as the number 1 team in the NFL in rushes per game (32.4), and the number 2 team in the NFL in rush yards per game (154.4). The Falcons’ strength defensively has been against the pass, while they’ve been somewhat middle of the road when it comes to rush defense. Atlanta’s defense is currently ranked 16th in the NFL for rush yards allowed per game at 109. Cook took a small step back last week against the Patriots, when he only had 49 yards on the ground, but in the three weeks prior he topped 100 rushing yards in each game. If the Falcons play to their strengths defensively, it should open things up for Buffalo’s running game, leading to a big day for Cook.

Michael Penix Jr. (under 31.5 pass attempts -113): Through four games for the Atlanta Falcons, Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game, with a big outlier in Week 1 when he had 42 attempts. Since then, the Falcons have been much more modest with the passing attack, as Penix had 21 attempts in Week 2, 36 in Week 3, and 26 in Week 4. Opponents of the Bills up to this point in the season have leaned on a heavier rushing attack, averaging just 26.6 pass attempts per game — the second fewest in the NFL. And when you have someone as versatile as Bijan Robinson in the backfield, there’s little reason to put all of your faith in the passing game.

Josh Allen (under 231.5 pass yards): The Atlanta Falcons currently boast the best defense in the NFL in pass yards allowed, giving up just 135 yards per game. Josh Allen averages 243.4 passing yards per game but has only cleared the current line of 231.5 twice this season. If the Bills roll out a rush-heavy attack like I expect them to, the under on his passing yards could be the play, along with the over on his rushing yards, which is currently listed at 34.5.

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

Rome Odunze (over 66.5 receiving yards -113): To open the season, Rome Odunze has emerged as Caleb Williams’ favorite target, averaging 74 receiving yards per game. Odunze has surpassed this 66.5 mark twice, and this week against the Commanders — who rank 23rd in pass yards allowed per game at 235 — he’ll have another favorable matchup. The Bears also come into this one off a bye week, so they should be refreshed and ready to go for this Monday Night Football game.

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Luke McCaffrey (over 27.5 receiving yards): This week, the Commanders will be without wideout Terry McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel is a bit banged up, playing through a heel injury. This creates a great opportunity for Luke McCaffrey to step up, as he has only surpassed this line twice in five games this season. He’s been targeted a fair amount with nine total and should see even more opportunities in this one. Chicago’s pass defense also hasn’t been great in terms of yards allowed per game, ranking 18th in the NFL while giving up 215 passing yards per contest.

D’Andre Swift (under 48.5 rush yards -115): The Chicago Bears have had a difficult time getting the run game going for D’Andre Swift this season. Things don’t get much easier this week against the Commanders, who held Omarion Hampton to just 44 yards last week. Swift has surpassed this number twice this season but has failed to do so in the Bears’ last two games. I also anticipate a pass-heavy attack from Chicago, which would naturally lead to fewer opportunities for Swift.