Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Date: October 6th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

When looking at this Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars before the season, many may have overlooked it — but it’s shaping up to be one of the more intriguing prime-time games so far. Kansas City, who opened the season with two straight losses, has bounced back with back-to-back wins to even their record at 2-2 and appeared to find some rhythm offensively against the Ravens last week. Defensively, the Chiefs have been impressive, ranking 5th in points allowed per game (19), 13th in yards allowed per game (312.8), and 9th in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 54.55% rate.

Jacksonville enters this one at 3-1, with its only loss coming in a tightly contested matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. Offensively, things have been fairly middle-of-the-road, and Trevor Lawrence still needs to clean up turnovers — he’s thrown 5 touchdown passes against 4 interceptions. Defensively, though, the Jaguars have been excellent, ranking 4th in points allowed per game (18), 16th in yards allowed per game (316.3), and 4th in red-zone defense (44.44% touchdown rate). This will likely be the biggest test the Jaguars have faced on both sides of the ball so far, and it’ll be interesting to see how they respond under the Monday night lights.

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Weather 

Weather could play an interesting role in this game, as thunderstorms are possible throughout the day, with chances reaching up to 67% during kickoff. Temperatures will be mild, staying in the high 70s, and winds are expected to average around 9 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.

Betting Overview

This matchup opened with the Chiefs favored at -4.5 at most sportsbooks but has since moved slightly toward the Jaguars, with Kansas City now sitting at -3.5. The moneyline hasn’t shifted much—opening with the Chiefs at -218 and now ranging between -188 and -205—while the Jaguars have moved from +180 to between +160 and +170. The total has ticked down slightly from its original line of 47.5 to between 45 and 45.5, depending on the sportsbook.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Jacksonville’s coaching staff, while still relatively new, has been very effective through the first few games of the season. They’ve proven they can compete with anyone, but when you’re going up against a staff like Kansas City’s, it’s hard to side with the Jaguars. Andy Reid, along with Steve Spagnuolo and Matt Nagy, have years of chemistry and success together, and this Chiefs group appears to be trending upward.

DLs vs. OLs: Both teams are fairly evenly matched in the trenches, but the Chiefs hold a slight edge on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars also have several key players banged up along the offensive line, further tilting the advantage toward Kansas City.

QBs: Trevor Lawrence has shown promise early in the season, but when you’re facing a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, it’s tough to give the edge anywhere else.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Jacksonville has been impressive in the middle of the field defensively to start the year. Offensively, Travis Etienne Jr. seems to have found his rhythm, and tight end Brenton Strange has emerged as a reliable option, giving the Jaguars the edge in this category.

WRs vs. Secondaries: You can make a case for either receiving corps, but Jacksonville’s secondary has been outstanding so far. They currently rank second in the NFL in interception rate, forcing opponents into picks on 5.77% of their pass attempts.

Betting Trends

The Chiefs enter this game with the same ATS record as their straight-up record at 2-2. Kansas City has only played one road game this season, which they covered, and they’re 2-1 ATS in non-division contests. Over/unders have also split two apiece, with the under hitting in the Chiefs’ lone away game and in two of their three non-division matchups.

Jacksonville also comes into this matchup with identical straight-up and ATS records at 3-1. The Jaguars have covered both of their home games and are 2-1 ATS in non-division contests. Totals have split two apiece as well, with the under hitting in both home games, though the over has been slightly more favorable in non-division games, cashing in two of three.

Final Thoughts

Kansas City proved last week for the first time that they’re capable of blowing opponents away. This week presents a tougher challenge on the road against an improved Jaguars team. I do think the Chiefs will come out on top, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jacksonville cover. While both defenses have been strong, I slightly lean toward the over in this one at its current line of 45.5.