Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons

Date: December 29th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

This week on Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Los Angeles has already secured a playoff spot but is looking to lock up the top wild card position in the NFC, making this a crucial matchup. In their last game, the Rams lost a heartbreaking overtime contest to the Seahawks, though they still sit at an impressive 11–4 on the season.

The Rams boast one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, ranking 2nd in yards per game (396.7) and 1st in points per game (30.5). The defense has also been solid, allowing 327.1 yards per game (16th) and just 19.9 points per game (7th). Atlanta, meanwhile, has struggled for much of the season but enters this game on a two-game winning streak, bringing their record to 6–9. Offensively, the Falcons have moved the ball well, ranking 13th in yards per game (340.5), but they’ve had trouble finishing drives, scoring just 20.5 points per game (26th). Defensively, they rank 14th in yards allowed per game (323.3) and 20th in points allowed (24.0).

With the Rams gearing up for the postseason, they’ll be eager to see how they match up against this Falcons team, and I expect them to come out aggressive early.

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Betting Overview

This game opened with the Rams listed as 3-point favorites, but the line has since moved to between 7 and 7.5 points, depending on the sportsbook. Los Angeles is now priced at -355 on the moneyline (from -162), while Atlanta sits at +300 (from +136). The total has also seen movement, climbing roughly three points from 46.5 to between 49 and 49.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: In a bit of a reunion game for Raheem Morris, he’ll have his hands full against one of the best coaching staffs in the league. Sean McVay has been a staple in the NFL for years and is complemented by strong coordinators in Mike LaFleur and Chris Shula.

OLs vs. DLs: Up front, this matchup features average versus elite. Los Angeles has had one of, if not the best offensive lines in the league, paired with an arguably top five defensive line. Atlanta has been middle of the road on both sides of the line throughout the season, giving the Rams a clear edge in the trenches.

QBs: We’ll see two veteran quarterbacks in this game, though one has been far more effective. Matthew Stafford has been one of the league’s most elite quarterbacks this year and has already surpassed 4,000 passing yards. Kirk Cousins, who has come in as a replacement for this Falcons team, hasn’t played poorly, but his production doesn’t compare to what Stafford and the Rams’ offense have accomplished.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is where Atlanta finally finds an advantage. The Falcons will need strong performances from both Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts to have any chance in this matchup. Atlanta’s off-ball linebackers haven’t been particularly impressive, while the Rams have been fairly average defending the middle of the field.

WRs vs. Secondaries: While the Falcons possess a strong secondary unit, they’ll be facing the most productive receiving corps in the league. For that reason, the edge still goes to the Rams on the outside, even though their own secondary has been inconsistent this season.

Betting Trends

The Rams enter this matchup with an 11-4 ATS record, including a 5-2 mark on the road, a 4-1 record as an away favorite, and an 8-2 record in non-division games. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 8 of 15 overall, including 6 of 7 as a road team and 4 of 5 as an away favorite. In games against non-division opponents, however, the under has hit in 6 of 10.

Atlanta comes in at 7-7-1 ATS on the season, with a 2-4 record at home, a 1-1 mark as a home underdog, and a 5-4-1 record in non-division games. Totals are evenly split at 7-7-1, including a 3-2-1 record at home and a 1-1 split as a home underdog. In non-division games, totals have gone 5-4-1.

Final Thoughts

With the season winding down and the Falcons well out of playoff contention, it’s hard to see them being fully motivated for this matchup. Los Angeles also benefits from extra rest coming off their previous game and should be eager to get back in the win column. I expect the Rams to jump out to an early lead and hold on, ultimately covering the spread. I don’t have a strong lean on the total in this one.