Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne Jr. (over 64.5 rush yards -110): One of the biggest factors in Jacksonville’s 3-1 start has been their strong running game. The Jaguars are averaging 144 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL, and Travis Etienne Jr. has accounted for much of that success, averaging 98.5 yards on the ground per contest. They’ll be facing a vulnerable Kansas City run defense that ranks 22nd in opponent rushing yards per game, allowing 127. From a game plan standpoint, one of the most effective ways to compete with the Chiefs has always been to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. That means Jacksonville will need to control the clock with a steady, efficient rushing attack. Given Trevor Lawrence’s occasional struggles with turnovers, leaning on Etienne and the ground game could be key to keeping the Jaguars competitive in this matchup.

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Brian Thomas Jr. (under 56.5 receiving yards -112): Wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who had an impressive 2024 campaign, has gotten off to a relatively slow start this season. He’s averaging just 41 receiving yards per game and has yet to surpass his current line of 56.5 yards. The Chiefs’ secondary has been a tough matchup for opposing receivers, allowing only 185.8 passing yards per game — the seventh-best mark in the NFL. Kansas City will likely make Thomas a focal point of their defensive game plan, aiming to take him out of the equation and force Trevor Lawrence to distribute the ball elsewhere.

Patrick Mahomes (over 248.5 pass yards): Patrick Mahomes is coming off his best performance of the season last week against the Baltimore Ravens, throwing for 270 yards and four touchdowns. While he’s averaged 234.7 passing yards per game this year, opposing teams have taken a pass-heavy approach against the Jaguars — throwing on 65.73% of plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Although he is listed as questionable, it appears the Chiefs will have wideout Xavier Worthy available, which not only gives Mahomes another weapon but also puts additional pressure on Jacksonville’s secondary.