NASCAR Autotrader 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:

With all due respect to Daytona and Talladega for being the long-standing favorite tracks of most race fans, if you were to poll these same fans about which track has been the most exciting to watch races at over the past few seasons, most would undoubtedly say Atlanta, now known as Echopark Speedway. 

Since major track renovations in 2022, which involved higher banking in the turns, and a narrower racing surface, this facility has become somewhat of a “mini superspeedway.” The action is fast and furious, there is a lot of passing and continuous action on nearly every lap, and as such, things can often get crazy. So, while the races are intense, it does make handicapping them a challenge. Echopark Speedway receives a grade of D on my handicap-ability scale, based solely on what has happened over the last three seasons. This could be another great race to back underdogs. In fact, Chase Elliott won the most recent race there at +1500. 

Before we dig into what to look for in Sunday’s Autotrader 400, I want to announce that after some encouragement from readers, I’ve made it a point to try to make weekly NASCAR Cup Series previews a more regular feature this year. I can’t promise I’ll get to every race, but I will try. Part of these previews will be in looking back at the most recent race(s) and keeping track of the simulation results as well as my own published race projections. As such, going back to last week’s Daytona 500, Tyler Reddick winning at +4000 gave my Top Long Shots predictions a huge boost in terms of season ROI. He was one of five such drivers I offered this designation to.

Here are the detailed results from Daytona simulations/predictions:

Initial simulation winner: Joey Logano (-1 unit)

Final simulation winner: Joey Logano (-1 unit)

Final simulation top-3 projections: two losers, one winner, Logano +300 – total return +1 unit

Final simulation top-5 projections: three losers, two winners, Logano +165 and Chase Elliott +180 – total return +1.45 units

Final simulation top-10 projections: six losers, four winners, Logano +100, Chase Elliott +115, Brad Keselowski +210 and Josh Berry +260 – total return +0.85 units

My personal top-5 predictions: four losers, one winner, Logano +165 – total return -2.35 units

Top Long Shots to win: four losers, one winner, Reddick +4000 – total return +36 units

Favorites to struggle: Larson (16th), Bell (35th), Byron (12th), Wallace (10th)

I would consider what happened at Daytona a very strong start to the season, especially considering that is THE most unpredictable track on the circuit. 

Looking ahead to Atlanta on Sunday, three of the four races here over the last two seasons have experienced double-digit caution numbers, so expect the unexpected. Like most drafting races, it is always best to be out front when any big accidents occur. In looking at the stats over the last four Atlanta races, these are the drivers who have been “out front” the most: 

Average RUNNING POSITION the last two years at Atlanta

1. Cindric Austin: 12.25

2. Elliott Chase: 12.5

3. Blaney Ryan: 14

4. Busch Kyle: 14

5. Gilliland Todd: 14.25

…

34. Hamlin Denny: 22.75

35. Dillon Ty: 23

36. Briscoe Chase: 23.5

37. Jones Erik: 24

38. Bell Christopher: 24.5 

Average DRIVER RATING the last two years at Atlanta

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1. Logano Joey: 101.6

2. Blaney Ryan: 98.3

3. Cindric Austin: 96.0

4. Elliott Chase: 90.5

5. Byron William: 85.7

…

33. Briscoe Chase: 59.7

34. Herbst Riley: 59.4

35. Jones Erik: 58.3

36. Van Gisbergen Shane: 56.0

37. Dillon Austin: 55.8 

Most LAPS RUN in TOP 15 the last two years at Atlanta

1. Elliott Chase: 772

2. Cindric Austin: 764

3. Blaney Ryan: 763

4. Byron William: 685

5. Logano Joey: 662

…

29. Bell Christopher: 249

30. Nemechek John Hunter: 231

31. Van Gisbergen Shane: 206

32. Dillon Austin: 180

33. Dillon Ty: 177 

Best AVERAGE FINISH the last two years at Atlanta

1. Stenhouse Ricky: 7.8

2. Busch Kyle: 9.5

3. Elliott Chase: 11

4. Zilisch Connor: 11

5. Hocevar Carson: 11.8

…

30. Larson Kyle: 22.3

31. Byron William: 22.5

32. Nemechek John Hunter: 22.5

33. Herbst Riley: 22.5

34. Keselowski Brad: 23.3

35. Gilliland Todd: 23.8

36. Van Gisbergen Shane: 26.3

37. Berry Josh: 28.5 

With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Atlanta track, in order, are Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman and Brad Kesewloski. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on VSiN.com by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING then to NASCAR HUB. 

The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following: 

Top 5: Ryan Blaney (+1000), William Byron (+1200), Joey Logano (+1000), Brad Keselowski (+2000), Chase Elliott (+1000)

Top long shots (+2000 or higher): Keselowski (+2000), Chris Beuscher (+2500),  Kyle Busch (+2000), Ricky Stenhouse (+2800), Carson Hocevar (+3000)

Favorites to struggle: Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick

The 400-mile event at the newly named Echopark Speedway is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. 

Be sure to visit VSiN’s NASCAR Hub for this week’s full initial simulation. All sims will appear there during the season. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much more. 

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