NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Ryan Blaney’s win at Phoenix on Sunday gave us three outright winners in a row for our final simulations. That brings our record stretch to having now pegged 15 of the last 32 race winners, producing a total profit of +67.3 units! We will continue to ride the hot streak as we move on to Las Vegas for the first mile-and-a-half race of the 2026 season.
Any time we mention mile-and-a-half oval tracks in the Cup Series, you have to consider Kyle Larson as one of the top threats. He is exactly that this week as he opens up as the heavy favorite on the initial simulation and in the eyes of oddsmakers at DraftKings, with +500 odds. Larson has three career wins at LVMS, but none since two years ago at this track. Besides Larson, the drivers expected to fare well according to the odds and my projections include Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and William Byron.
Although we’ve been to a few ovals already, Las Vegas differs from the rest in that it is a mile and a half and is termed as a “cookie-cutter,” both because of its shape and because of its similarity to several other tracks that were built in the late 1990s. The Cup Series has been racing here since 1998, although I tend to limit my simulations and stat offerings in this article to just recent years. If you are wondering which tracks LVMS bears the closest resemblance to, Kansas and Homestead-Miami are my top candidates. It’s no coincidence that those are tracks where Larson has dominated in recent seasons, much of the reason he is expected to be running out front for much of Sunday’s Pennzoil 400.
In terms of handicap-ability grades, Las Vegas gets a B, making it one of the top 14 tracks on the circuit in terms of handicap-ability. Does that mean we can trust the projections this week more than the others we’ve seen to date? Theoretically, yes, but every race is unique, and just last year at this event, we witnessed one of the biggest upsets in recent memory, with Josh Berry taking home his first career checkered flag at 40-1 odds. Long-shot bettors in Las Vegas for the weekend had plenty of reason to celebrate.
Besides the three straight outright winners, how well have things gone so far for my NASCAR Simulations in the 2026 season? Let’s take a look at some of the stats after four races:
Initial Phoenix simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +1 unit for the season
Final Phoenix simulation winner: Ryan Blaney (+5.5 units) – NOW +28.5 units for the season
Final simulation top-3 Phoenix projections: two winners, one loser, Blaney +165, Larson +190 – total return +2.55 units – NOW +6.25 units for the season
Final simulation top-5 Phoenix projections: four winners, one loser, Blaney -125, Bell -110, Larson -110, Hamlin -125 – total return +3 units – Now +7.55 units for the season
Final simulation top-10 Phoenix projections: four losers, six winners, Blaney -330, Bell -275, Larson -275, Hamlin -330, Byron -250, Reddick -175 – total return +0.65 units – Now -0.3 units for the season
I am noticing more this season that the top-10 odds are priced a bit more heavily for the favorites than they have been in recent years. Even in a pretty successful race of pegging six top-10 finishers, the profit is just +0.65 units. I will continue to monitor this.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter.
My personal top-5 COTA predictions: four winners, one loser — Blaney -125, Bell -110, Larson -110, Hamlin -125 — total return +3 units – Now -5.35 units for the season
Top Atlanta Long shots to win: four losers — total return -4 units — Now +44 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Atlanta: Elliott (23rd), Wallace (6th), Busch (17th), Keselowski (15th) – Now 13 for 15 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
It has been a very strong start to the 2026 season, continuing right where we left off in November. Which leads me to another point. After Sunday’s race, a VSiN reader asked me why I believe this run is happening. The answer: Before the 2025 season, I took quite a bit of time to study all of the data that had developed in the three seasons of the latest Next Gen car. I felt that three whole seasons made a great sample size and enough to tweak some of my long-running formulas that go into the simulations for each track. After going winless in the first eight races last season, I was starting to question whether or not that was a good move. Clearly, with 15 winners in the 32 races since, it was! Hopefully, we can all continue to ride the wave.
Looking ahead to Las Vegas now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this cookie-cutter mile-and-a-half oval over the last two seasons. Typically, these tracks are all about speed and handling of a car, although sometimes late pit decisions can prove to be very impactful. There are often a lot of long runs at LVMS, as evidenced by just two of the last 24 races here seeing double-digit cautions. Furthermore, only about seven cars on average over the last four races here finish more than two laps down. The two most critical simulation factors at this facility are recent performance at LVMS and recent performance at tracks similar to this. The qualifying and practice speeds can change things on the simulation, although I’d be very surprised to see someone unseat Larson at the top spot. Still, keep an eye on what happens Saturday afternoon at the track to see if anyone comes out of nowhere with a huge practice or qualifying effort. Those P&Q results will be entered into the final simulation projections. Here are the stats for the last four races at LVMS for all active drivers that have raced here, with four winners in that time span:
Average STARTING POSITION in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Joey Logano: 5.5
2. Kyle Larson: 5.75
3. William Byron: 6.5
4. Christopher Bell: 6.75
5. Tyler Reddick: 10.5
…
31. Ty Dillon: 26
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 27.25
33. Todd Gilliland: 30.75
34. Riley Herbst: 33.5
35. Cody Ware: 35. 67
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Ross Chastain: 3.5
2. Darrell Wallace: 4.75
3. William Byron: 6
4. Tyler Reddick: 6
5. Kyle Larson: 7.75
…
31. Todd Gilliland: 29.75
32. Josh Berry: 30.25
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33.33
34. Ty Dillon: 33.5
35. Cody Ware: 34.33
Average RUNNING POSITION in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Kyle Larson: 7.25
2. Joey Logano: 9.5
3. William Byron: 10
4. Tyler Reddick: 11
5. Alex Bowman: 11.5
…
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 25.33
32. Cole Custer: 26.5
33. Todd Gilliland: 26.5
34. Ty Dillon: 29
35. Cody Ware: 30.67
Total FASTEST LAPS in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Kyle Larson: 132
2. Christopher Bell: 95
3. Tyler Reddick: 94
4. William Byron: 71
5. Alex Bowman: 43
…
31. Erik Jones: 0
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
33. Cole Custer: 0
34. Todd Gilliland: 0
35. Cody Ware: 0
Average DRIVER RATING in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Kyle Larson: 124.9
2. William Byron: 105.45
3. Tyler Reddick: 104.65
4. Joey Logano: 101.075
5. Christopher Bell: 95.725
…
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 42.57
32. Cole Custer: 41.85
33. Todd Gilliland: 41.425
34. Ty Dillon: 35.7
35. CodyWare: 31.83
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Joey Logano: 235.25
2. Kyle Larson: 228.25
3. William Byron: 220
4. Tyler Reddick: 209.5
5. Christopher Bell: 193.25
…
31. Cody Ware: 21.67
32. Ty Dillon: 17
33. Todd Gilliland: 16
34. Cole Custer: 11
35. Riley Herbst: 7.5
Best AVERAGE FINISH in the last four races at Las Vegas
1. Kyle Larson: 5.75
2. Joey Logano: 7.75
3. Daniel Suarez: 9
4. Alex Bowman: 9.25
5. Ross Chastain: 9.75
…
31. Cole Custer: 27
32. Austin Dillon: 27.5
33. Ty Dillon: 29
34. Cody Ware: 30.67
35. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Las Vegas, in order, are Larson, Reddick, Byron, Bell and Logano. For track designation ratings (cookie-cutter mile-and-a-half tracks), the order is Larson, Hamlin, Bell, Elliott and Blaney. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Bell, Briscoe, Blaney, Larson and Reddick. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now at the NASCAR HUB on VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick
Top underdogs to consider (+1100 or bigger): Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman
Favorites to struggle: Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric
The 267-lap event at LVMS is set for 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15, just before the Selection Sunday college basketball announcement.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
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