NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 500 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:

We have put together back-to-back race simulation wins, and dating to last season, we have now pegged 14 of the last 31 race winners, an unprecedented run I had never achieved prior, and bringing a total profit of +61.8 units! We will continue to ride the hot streak as we move on to Phoenix. 

Of course, the hot driver right now is Tyler Reddick, who has won the season’s first three races. Can he make it four in a row on Sunday at Phoenix? Well, I’d caution against never saying never, and he has been very good here the last two years, but this track is far different from the three we have visited to date, and more indicative of the types of venues we visit more regularly on the Cup Series. My initial simulation run finds Reddick projected in 10th, and for as much as we’ve seen him dominate the first three races of 2026, I would expect that this week we will see more championship-level efforts from the likes of Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Kyle Larson, title-contending drivers who haven’t fared quite as well in the early going and need good efforts to get off the mat. Those three, along with Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell, make for the five drivers most expected to win by the oddsmakers at DraftKings.

Although Daytona and Atlanta are officially ovals, their status as drafting tracks makes Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 500 unique so far this season. Phoenix International Raceway is a 1-mile track located in Avondale, Arizona, and best known for its wide racing surface, its fantastic weather conditions and for being a regular-season finale track, one that has decided many recent Cup Series titles. It is a short track in nature, and like most other short tracks on the circuit, has proven fairly predictable in my simulations. In fact, in terms of handicap-ability grades, PIR gets a B+, the highest so far this season. Does that mean we can trust the projections this week more than the others we’ve seen to date? Theoretically, yes, but every race is unique, and to be truthful, it’s going to be difficult keep up with the success level we have had so far this season. 

How good have things gone so far for my NASCAR simulations in the 2026 season? Let’s take a look at some of the stats after three races: 

Initial COTA simulation winner: Tyler Reddick (+4 units) – NOW +2 units for the season

Final simulation winner: Tyler Reddick (+4 units) – NOW +23 units for the season

Final simulation top 3 COTA projections: two losers, one winner, Reddick +120 – total return -0.8 units – NOW +3.7 units for the season

Final simulation top 5 COTA projections: two losers, three winners, Reddick -175, Van Gisbergen -275, McDowell +450 – total return +4.5 units – Now +4.55 units for the season

Final simulation top 10 COTA projections: four losers, six winners, Reddick -500, Van Gisbergen -1200, McDowell -120, Larson -105, Elliott -175, Blaney -275, – total return +2 units – Now -0.95 units for the season

Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN email newsletter…

My personal top 5 COTA predictions: three losers, two winners, Reddick -175, Van Gisbergen -275 – total return -1 units – Now -8.35 units for the season

Top Atlanta Longshots to win: five losers – total return -5 units – Now +48 units for the season!

Favorites to struggle at Atlanta: Logano (15th), Hamlin (10th), Wallace (11th), Keselowski (20th) – Now 10 for 11 for the season picking favored drivers to finish outside of the top 10!

It has been a VERY strong start to the 2026 season, continuing right where we left off in November, when, as predicted, Ryan Blaney took home the 2025 season’s final checkered flag. The results so far are even more encouraging when you consider that we’ve only visited Daytona and Atlanta, two D-or-worse graded tracks, and COTA, a road course where SVG, the heavy favorite, did NOT win.

Looking ahead to Phoenix on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this short track over the last two seasons. Like most short tracks, the speed and handling of a car, as well as the ability to maneuver in traffic has been paramount to success at PIR. Momentum has also been key. In fact, the two most critical simulation factors at this facility are recent performance overall and recent performance at tracks similar to PIR. The qualifying and practice speeds can change things on the simulation, especially with the top six being grouped so tightly on the initial simulator. Thus, keep a close eye on what happens Saturday afternoon at the track to see if anyone can unseat Denny Hamlin from the top spot. Of course, if you miss it, don’t fret, those results will be entered into the final simulation projections. Here are the stats for the last four races at PIR for all active drivers that have raced here, with Christopher Bell (2x) being a multi-time winner in that span:

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Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Phoenix
1. William Byron: 4
2. Denny Hamlin: 6.5
3. Chase Elliott: 7.75
4. Carson Hocevar: 8.5
5. Joey Logano: 9.25
…
31. Austin Dillon: 28.25
32. Ty Dillon: 29.5
33. Todd Gilliland: 29.5
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 30
35. Cody Ware: 34

Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK last four races at Phoenix
1. Austin Cindric: 4.25
2. Denny Hamlin: 5.5
3. Joey Logano: 8.75
4. Ryan Blaney: 9.5
5. Ty Gibbs: 9.5
…
31. Riley Herbst: 29
32. AJ Allmendinger: 31.5
33. Cody Ware: 32.5
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33.5
35. Ty Dillon: 35

Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Phoenix
1. William Byron: 5
2. Christopher Bell: 5.75
3. Denny Hamlin: 6.25
4. Ryan Blaney: 6.75
5. Tyler Reddick: 8.5
…
31. Ty Dillon: 28
32. AJ Allmendinger: 29
33. Riley Herbst: 29.5
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 30.5
35. Cody Ware: 31

Total LAPS LED last four races at Phoenix
1. Christopher Bell: 298
2. Denny Hamlin: 279
3. Joey Logano: 188
4. William Byron: 154
5. Tyler Reddick: 68
…
16. Chris Buescher: 0
16. Ross Chastain: 0
16. Daniel Suarez: 0
16. Josh Berry: 0
16. Carson Hocevar: 0
16. Noah Gragson: 0
16. Erik Jones: 0
16. Kyle Busch: 0
16. Darrell Wallace: 0
16. Zane Smith: 0
16. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
16. Michael McDowell: 0
16. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
16. Austin Dillon: 0
16. Cole Custer: 0
16. Ty Dillon: 0
16. AJ Allmendinger: 0
16. Riley Herbst: 0
16. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
16. Cody Ware: 0

Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Phoenix
1. Christopher Bell: 123.7
2. Denny Hamlin: 113.9
3. Ryan Blaney: 109.475
4. William Byron: 106.875
5. Tyler Reddick: 98.925
…
31. AJ Allmendinger: 38.55
32. Riley Herbst: 37.45
33. Cole Custer: 37.4
34. Cody Ware: 35.85
35. Shane Van Gisbergen: 34.95

Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Phoenix
1. Ryan Blaney: 305.25
2. Christopher Bell: 303
3. Denny Hamlin: 296.75
4. William Byron: 285.5
5. Tyler Reddick: 271.25
…
31. Riley Herbst: 4
31. Cole Custer: 4
33. AJ Allmendinger: 0
33. Cody Ware: 0
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0

Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Phoenix
1. Christopher Bell: 4.5
2. Kyle Larson: 6
3. Chris Buescher: 7
4. Denny Hamlin: 7.5
5. Ryan Blaney: 9
…
31. Cody Ware: 27
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 27.5
33. Cole Custer: 28.5
34. AJ Allmendinger: 30
35. Riley Herbst: 30

With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Phoenix track, in order, are Bell, Blaney, Logano, Hamlin and Byron. For track designation ratings (short tracks), the order is Hamlin, Blaney, Larson, Byron and Logano. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Briscoe, Larson, Bell, Blaney and Hamlin. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING then to NASCAR HUB.

The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for noon ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:

Top 5: Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick

Top underdogs to consider (+1200 or better): Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Josh Berry

Favorites to struggle: Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe

The 312-lap event at PIR is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.

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