After the first week of the NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 weekend is upon us. Similarly to 2025, we didn’t see a ton of upsets or, more particularly, “Cinderella stories,” but it sets up for some great games this week. We have 16 teams competing for the national title, and each one of these teams feels like they have a shot, as they just have to win 4 games to crown themselves champions. There are definitely still some teams at the top of the list that have a significantly better chance than other teams in the field. Though, all things considered, it’s a pretty narrow top-to-bottom race for the title. Let’s dive into each remaining team’s odds and their implied probability to win the national title.
Embed from Getty ImagesNCAA Tournament Winner Odds & Implied Probability (per DraftKings)
| School | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Michigan | +330 | 23.26% |
| Arizona | +350 | 22.22% |
| Duke | +380 | 20.83% |
| Houston | +700 | 12.50% |
| Purdue | +1300 | 7.14% |
| Illinois | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Iowa State | +1700 | 5.56% |
| UConn | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Michigan State | +3000 | 3.23% |
| St. Johns | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Arkansas | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Nebraska | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Tennessee | +6000 | 1.64% |
| Iowa | +12000 | 0.83% |
| Alabama | +13000 | 0.76% |
| Texas | +30000 | 0.33% |
Final Thoughts
As you can see from this board, even some of these “longer shot” teams have a pretty decent shot at the title. The beauty and the curse of the NCAA Tournament is that it just takes one bad game and you’re sent home packing. I think you can certainly find some solid value teams in that range between Purdue and Nebraska. Below Nebraska you’re getting a little too high-risk, high-reward, and above Purdue, that’s where you see the heavier favorites. A lot can play out over these next 2 rounds between the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8, and as a fan, it is always exciting to see how the games will unfold.
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