NBA Betting Strategies Using the Regular Season Schedule:
Another less-than-memorable NBA All-Star Weekend has come and gone, and players get “back to work” on Thursday and Friday, with each team having about 1/3 of its regular-season schedule remaining. There is still much to be decided regarding divisional races and which teams will qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2025-26 season. With that in mind, I’ll share what has been 25 of the most definitive performance records across various scheduling situations so far, and where these angles will apply going forward. All of these angles have hit at better than a 72% rate so far, and all are at least seven games over-.500.
Keep these upcoming games lists handy and hit ’em when they come around. This is as “actionable” a list as you can get. Don’t fret if you forget, however, as the scheduling situations are always a big part of our NBA Analytics Reports each day.
25 Top NBA Situational Records from 2025-26 season (in team alphabetical order)
* ATLANTA is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS (0%) at a home favorite of -1 to-5 points this season
The Hawks find themselves just 10-15 at home coming out of the all-star break, yet they remain in the hunt for the play-in positions in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They’ll have to improve a lot on this trend as several of their last season games as hosts figure to be in this line range. Here are those potential spots:
2/20 – vs. MIAMI
3/1 – vs. PORTLAND
3/7 – vs. PHILADELPHIA
3/10 – vs. DALLAS
3/14 – vs. MILWAUKEE
3/16 – vs. ORLANDO
3/23 – vs. MEMPHIS
* CHICAGO was 1-9 SU and ATS (10%) in its final 10 Games before the all-star break
The Bulls made a lot of moves at the trade deadline, essentially upending the roster. They were also battling a lot of injuries at the time. Any cohesion the team had prior to has been lost. I wouldn’t expect a late-season surge from this team. Here are their upcoming seven games, all at home:
2/19 – vs. TORONTO
2/21 – vs. DETROIT
2/22 – vs. NEW YORK
2/24 – vs. CHARLOTTE
2/26 – vs. PORTLAND
3/1 – vs. MILWAUKEE
3/3 – vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
* CLEVELAND is just 13-15 SU and 7-21 ATS (25%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
This is an awful trend for a team that has high playoff prospects, as the postseason road is short if you can’t beat the better teams in the league. The Cavaliers will need to turn this around if they hope to succeed in late spring. Here are their remaining games versus teams that currently have winning records:
2/22 – at Oklahoma City
2/24 – vs. NEW YORK
2/27 – at Detroit
3/3 – vs. DETROIT
3/8 – vs. BOSTON
3/9 – vs. PHILADELPHIA
3/11 – at Orlando
3/24 – vs. ORLANDO
3/25 – vs. MIAMI
3/27 – vs. MIAMI
3/31 – at LA Lakers
4/2 – at Golden State
4/8 – vs. ATLANTA
* CLEVELAND is 6-3 SU and 1-8 ATS (11%) as a double-digit home favorite this season
Same team as above, totally different problem. Overall, Cleveland is underachieving this season, despite being 13 games over .500 at the All-Star break. The Cavaliers struggle against winning teams, but they are also a bad wager when laying a lot of points at home to the league’s worst teams. Here are the potential spots they may be double-digit home chalk the rest of the way:
2/19 – vs. BROOKLYN
3/15 – vs. DALLAS
4/5 – vs. INDIANA
4/12 – vs. WASHINGTON
* DALLAS is just 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
The Mavericks are one of the league’s most disappointing teams to date, sitting at 16-games under .500 as we come out of the break. Rookie Cooper Flagg has started to blossom, but roster shakeups, injuries, and other concerns have this team well below the playoff line. Here are their road games the rest of the way against teams that currently have winning records:
2/20 – at Minnesota
3/5 – at Orlando
3/6 – at Boston
3/8 – at Toronto
3/15 – at Cleveland
3/25 – at Denver
4/8 – at Phoenix
4/10 – at San Antonio
* DENVER is 13-1 Over the total (93%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
The Nuggets are having their way offensively with the league’s worst teams, as they have scored 125.6 PPG against teams currently winning less than 40% of their games. Consider it stat padding perhaps. Here are the potential spots to take advantage of this trend the rest of the way:
3/2 – at Utah
3/27 – vs. UTAH
4/1 – at Utah
4/8 – vs. MEMPHIS
* DETROIT is 14-3 Under the total (18%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Detroit is holding teams in this spot to less than 110 PPG this season, well below the league average of 115.5 PPG. The Pistons are doing a lot of things right in 2025-26; this is just one of them. Look for low-scoring games when the Pistons are small favorites the rest of the way, potentially in these games:
2/21 – at Chicago
2/23 – vs. SAN ANTONIO
2/27 – vs. CLEVELAND
3/1 – at Orlando
3/8 – at Miami
3/12 – vs. PHILADELPHIA
3/15 – at Toronto
3/20 – vs. GOLDEN STATE
3/23 – vs. LA LAKERS
3/25 – vs. ATLANTA
3/31 – vs. TORONTO
4/2 – vs. MINNESOTA
4/4 – at Philadelphia
4/6 – at Orlando
4/10 – at Charlotte
* DETROIT is 9-1 SU and ATS (90%) as an underdog this season
This is an incredible trend and a big part of why Detroit finds itself atop the Eastern Conference by a comfortable margin at the break. The Pistons play their best when fueled by the motivation of being disrespected. This one might be tough to maintain down the stretch, but here are the potential spots:
2/19 – at New York
2/25 – vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
3/3 – at Cleveland
3/5 – at San Antonio
3/28 – at Minnesota
3/30 – at Oklahoma City
4/4 – at Philadelphia
* GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 Over the total (82%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points this season
This seems like another potential stat-padding spot where Golden State takes advantage of games they expect to win by scoring more and playing faster. The Warriors average a lofty 122.5 PPG in these spots and are 13-4 outright. Here are the potential spots:
2/24 – at New Orleans
2/25 – at Memphis
3/9 – at Utah
3/10 – vs. CHICAGO
3/16 – at Washington
3/23 – at Dallas
4/7 – vs. SACRAMENTO
4/10 – at Sacramento
* GOLDEN STATE is 0-8 SU and ATS (0%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
This is a trend that depicts a poorly coached team, one that shows lazy effort on the road against the league’s worst defensive teams. That is the current Warriors. Here are the games to take advantage of this trend the rest of the way:
2/24 – at New Orleans
3/9 – at Utah
3/16 – at Washington
3/21 – at Atlanta
4/10 – at Sacramento
* HOUSTON is 18-7 UNDER the total (28%) at home this season
Houston is 18-7 at home this season and allowing just 107.4 PPG in those contests. That figure is over 8.0 points below the leaguewide scoring average. Opponents have found scoring to be tough in Houston; that kind of trait can bode well for the Rockets at playoff time. Here are the remaining home games:
2/23 – vs. UTAH
2/25 – vs. SACRAMENTO
3/5 – vs. GOLDEN STATE
3/6 – vs. PORTLAND
3/10 – vs. TORONTO
3/13 – vs. NEW ORLEANS
3/16 – vs. LA LAKERS
3/18 – vs. LA LAKERS
3/20 – vs. ATLANTA
3/21 – vs. MIAMI
3/31 – vs. NEW YORK
4/1 – vs. MILWAUKEE
4/3 – vs. UTAH
4/9 – vs. PHILADELPHIA
4/10 – vs. MINNESOTA
4/12 – vs. MEMPHIS
* LA LAKERS are 10-2 Over the total (83%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
There have been a few of these trends already on the list, and to me, they scream of selfish teams looking to pad their stats against bottom-feeders. For the Lakers, the problem is compounded by their 8-4 record in these games, which comes with an ugly 118.1 PPG. Here are the remaining home games versus losing teams:
2/20 – vs. LA CLIPPERS
3/1 – vs. SACRAMENTO
3/3 – vs. NEW ORLEANS
3/6 – vs. INDIANA
3/12 – vs. CHICAGO
3/27 – vs. BROOKLYN
3/30 – vs. WASHINGTON
4/12 – vs. UTAH
* MIAMI is 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Once a plodding, slow-paced team, Miami has changed its ways in recent years and has become one of the league’s offensive juggernauts, scoring over 119 PPG so far this season. As such, they have had little trouble with opponents who can’t match that potency. Here are the remaining spots:
2/24 – at Milwaukee
3/3 – vs. BROOKLYN
3/5 – vs. BROOKLYN
3/10 – vs. WASHINGTON
3/12 – vs. MILWAUKEE
3/29 – at Indiana
4/4 – vs. WASHINGTON
4/7 – at Toronto
4/9 – at Toronto
4/10 – at Washington
* MILWAUKEE is 20-7 Under the total (26%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
For as much as Milwaukee went into the break on a relative hot streak, and having just won at Oklahoma City, the early part of the ’25-26 season has otherwise been a train wreck. Giannis has been oft-injured, the coaching situation leaves a lot to be desired, and by most indications, it would appear that this franchise’s years of contending with the current roster are over. Against the league’s lesser teams, the Bucks are just 13-14 and scoring just over 111 PPG. Here are the remaining games versus losing teams:
2/20 – at New Orleans
3/1 – at Chicago
3/4 – vs. ATLANTA
3/7 – vs. UTAH
3/14 – at Atlanta
3/15 – vs. INDIANA
3/19 – at Utah
3/23 – at LA Clippers
3/25 – at Portland
3/29 – vs. LA CLIPPERS
4/5 – vs. MEMPHIS
4/7 – at Brooklyn
4/10 – vs. BROOKLYN
* NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 Over the total (75%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games
New Orleans has allowed an unsightly 125.5 PPG in the 20 games in this trend, as the league’s best opponents have clearly fattened up on their opportunities to take on the Pelicans’ porous defense. has also won only five of these games outright. Here are the remaining spots:
3/3 – at LA Lakers
3/13 – at Houston
3/21 – vs. CLEVELAND
3/24 – at New York
3/26 – at Detroit
3/29 – vs. HOUSTON
4/10 – at Boston
4/12 – at Minnesota
* NEW YORK is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS (11%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
This is an obvious weak spot for the Knicks to date, but not one that should hurt them in the playoffs should the trend continue, since these low-scoring teams typically don’t find their way into the postseason. Still, 1-8 ATS is worthy of consideration when the opportunity arises in these future games:
2/27 – at Milwaukee
3/3 – at Toronto
3/9 – at LA Clippers
3/13 – at Indiana
3/17 – vs. INDIANA
3/20 – at Brooklyn
3/22 – vs. WASHINGTON
4/10 – vs. TORONTO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS (11%) on the back end of back-to-back day games
Fortunately for OKC, there are no postseason games that are played on back-to-back days, so this trend won’t hurt come playoff time. That said, the trend does indicate a potential weakness for the Thunder, and it could be due to fatigue, which would be a concern as the playoffs progress. Here are the remaining spots on the OKC schedule:
3/4 – at New York
3/18 – at Brooklyn
3/30 – vs. DETROIT
4/8 – at LA Clippers
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER the total (0%) in Friday games this season
I don’t have much of an explanation for this one, and it could be a fluke, but still, 9-0 is 9-0. Here are the rest of the 76ers’ Friday games:
4/3 – vs. MINNESOTA
4/10 – at Indiana
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS (90%) on the back end of back-to-back day games
This one caught me by surprise, as the 76ers have long been a team associated with load management and frequently resting players in back-to-back game spots. In ’25-26, Philadelphia has been surprisingly successful on the back end of consecutive games. Here are the games the rest of the way that meet the trend criteria:
2/22 – at Minnesota
3/4 – vs. UTAH
3/10 – vs. MEMPHIS
3/15 – vs. PORTLAND
4/4 – vs. DETROIT
4/10 – at Indiana
* PHOENIX is 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS (92%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Let’s face it, without this lofty level of success against the league’s worst teams, Phoenix would not currently be sitting comfortably in the 7th spot in the Western Conference standings. It is key for lower-level playoff contenders to take care of business against lesser teams. The Suns have done that. Here are the remaining spots:
3/3 – at Sacramento
3/6 – vs. NEW ORLEANS
3/12 – at Indiana
3/28 – vs. UTAH
3/30 – at Memphis
4/8 – vs. DALLAS
* PHOENIX is 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS (85%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
This is quite the opposite trend for the Suns, as they have also proven quite worthy of your betting backing when facing the league’s best offenses. The key has been defense; Phoenix has held these teams to 111.3 PPG in these contests, well below their averages. This kind of success could translate to the postseason. Here are the remaining spots:
2/19 – at San Antonio
3/17 – at Minnesota
3/19 – at San Antonio
3/24 – vs. DENVER
3/28 – vs. UTAH
4/12 – at Oklahoma City
* PORTLAND is 17-5 Over the total (77%) as a favorite this season
The 22 games that make up this trend have produced 243.5 PPG. Naturally, that will lead to a lot of Overs. Portland itself has scored 123.8 of those points on average. A favored Trailblazers team has been a potent one. Look for that to continue down the stretch in these games:
2/26 – at Chicago
3/8 – vs. INDIANA
3/13 – vs. UTAH
3/16 – at Brooklyn
3/18 – at Indiana
3/23 – vs. BROOKLYN
3/25 – vs. MILWAUKEE
3/27 – vs. DALLAS
3/29 – vs. WASHINGTON
4/2 – vs. NEW ORLEANS
4/12 – vs. SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS (18%) at home this season versus teams currently winning >60% of their games
Note that this is not an overall trend or a road trend; this is a home trend. Sacramento’s season has been terrible to date, for a variety of reasons, and the Kings have proven to barely even be competitive at home versus the league’s best. Here is the remaining home game versus an elite team:
3/17 – vs. SAN ANTONIO
* TORONTO is 11-3 SU and ATS (79%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
Toronto has a better record on the road this season than at home, 16-10 to 16-13. The Raptors’ road success has enabled them to secure the 5th seed in the East at this point. Taking care of business on the road against weaker competition is a key factor in securing desired postseason spots down the stretch. Take advantage of this trend in these upcoming spots:
2/19 – at Chicago
2/22 – at Milwaukee
2/28 – at Washington
3/11 – at New Orleans
3/18 – at Chicago
3/23 – at Utah
3/25 – at LA Clippers
4/3 – at Memphis
* WASHINGTON is 3-19 SU and 5-17 ATS (23%) vs. the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, currently scoring <114 PPG
The Wizards are, of course, one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, currently averaging 112.1 PPG. Unfortunately for them, they can’t even do well against other poor offensive teams. A 3-19 record against the league’s worst offenses is a significant factor in Washington’s worst record in the East. Take advantage of these future spots:
2/19 – vs. INDIANA
2/20 – vs. INDIANA
2/28 – vs. TORONTO
4/5 – at Brooklyn
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