Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Friday, June 13

After a beautifully chaotic first three games, the Indiana Pacers hold a shocking 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals, and suddenly, the true underdogs are barking. Indiana’s elite shot-making, depth and relentless aggression have overwhelmed the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder at times, flipping the script on what oddsmakers and bettors expected. Yet despite trailing in the series, Oklahoma City enters Game Four as a 6-point road favorite, with the total sitting at 225.5 points at the time of writing, per DraftKings. 

This series has defied expectations in nearly every way, making player prop handicapping a constant recalibration. Rotations have shifted, role players have stepped up, and coaching adjustments have altered game flow from game to game. Per usual, I’ve taken a value-driven approach into Game Four, focusing on roles, usage trends and matchup dynamics to identify the best prop betting angles. As always, you can track all my picks here. Let’s get into it.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (-118, FanDuel)

Haliburton continues to serve as the engine of Indiana’s offense, and his playmaking volume in this series supports this play. He racked up 11 assists on 17 potential dimes in Game Three, while logging a team-high 94 passes made—his highest output of the series. In the previous two games, he posted six assists on 15 potential helpers (79 passes) in Game Two and six assists on 13 potential dimes (89 passes) in Game One. That steady increase in pass volume and efficiency points to a trend worth targeting.

As the Thunder will likely apply more pressure in Game Four—blitzing pick-and-rolls, sending hard hedges, and forcing the ball out of his hands—Haliburton should have even more assist opportunities as Indiana’s spacing and secondary scorers take advantage. The Pacers are a remarkable 20-1 this season when Haliburton delivers 20-plus points and 10-plus assists, making it clear how vital he is to their success. At a 56.5% hit rate on this number across the season (52-40), and with his usage peaking at the right time, there’s value on the over once again in Game Four.

Myles Turner 4+ Points First Quarter (-105, DraftKings)

Turner hasn’t exactly popped early in this series—he’s scored just three, two, and three points in the opening quarters of Games One through Three despite playing between seven and nine minutes each time. The volume has been there (11 total field goal attempts in first quarters), but the results haven’t quite landed yet. That said, this sets up as a sneaky buy-low spot in Game Four.

With Haliburton drilling 4-of-8 open and wide-open threes in Game Three, Oklahoma City will almost certainly adjust by sending quicker help and harder hedges at the point of attack. That opens the door for Turner to capitalize as the release valve on pick-and-pops or rolls, especially considering he leads Indiana with 4.0 pick-and-roll possessions per game and has shot 50.8% on those looks. He’s also averaging a team-high 4.0 screen assists per game in the series, signaling just how central he is to early halfcourt actions.

If OKC’s defensive game plan overcorrects to contain Haliburton’s perimeter shooting, Turner should be the main beneficiary in the early going. He hasn’t cashed this number yet, but Game Four presents a sneaky opportunity for him to break through.

Obi Toppin Over 4.5 Rebounds (-114, FanDuel)

Toppin has quietly carved out a consistent rebounding role in this series, going over this number in all three NBA Finals games with six, five and five boards, respectively. He’s averaged 8.0 rebounding chances per game across those contests and has played between 19 and 28 minutes in each, giving him steady floor time and opportunity. His energy, motor and athleticism match up well against OKC, and he’s earned trusted minutes in key stretches.

Dating back to Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals, Toppin has now cleared this number in four straight games. Given his current role and how well he’s fit into the Pacers’ rotation, this number still feels a touch too low, especially with Indiana leaning on his versatility more and more as the series goes on. With his role holding steady, Toppin’s over remains a solid value heading into Game Four.

T.J. McConnell Over 0.5 Steals (+105, DraftKings)

McConnell has been a disruptive force off the bench throughout the Finals, recording one, two, and five steals over the first three games, clearing this number each time. His Game Three performance, which included multiple swipes on inbounds plays, showcased the type of defensive chaos he can generate in short bursts in front of a crazy home crowd.

Despite averaging just 16.6 minutes per game in the series, McConnell leads all Pacers with 3.3 deflections per contest. That speaks to his relentless on-ball pressure, quick hands, and ability to create turnovers without needing extended floor time. He’s cashed this prop in 62 of 98 games this season (63.3%), and with Indiana continuing to rely on his energy and peskiness to disrupt OKC’s rhythm, this plus-money price is too good to pass up in Game Four.

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