I have a bunch of plays for the loaded NBA slate on Thursday, March 12. So, while I normally break things down with two separate articles, I’m bringing everything under one roof instead of splitting up sides/totals and player props — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday.

RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!

NBA Best Bets Today

PARLAY: Pistons ML vs. 76ers, Suns ML vs. Pacers, Magic ML vs. Wizards, Hawks ML vs. Nets, Lakers ML vs. Bulls (-110)

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First games tip at 7:00 pm ET

I’m monitoring the Spurs injury report, as I’m pretty interested in a moneyline parlay featuring San Antonio and Oklahoma City. However, until I know Victor Wembanyama will be out there, all I have right now is the “Gill Alexander Special.” I like the idea of fading the tanking teams in the NBA, and four of them are in action tonight. But I’m also adding the Pistons this evening, as they’re hosting a 76ers team that will be missing Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Paul George.

I will note that there is a chance that I’ll play Bulls +10.5 if the four initial legs hit. Chicago might be a tanking team, but Billy Donovan gets his guys to play hard — which is why the Bulls burned us the other night with their late comeback against the Warriors. I wouldn’t mind a scenario where I have a big middle on the final game.

NBA Player Props Today

Ousmane Dieng Over 9.5 Points (-110) vs. Heat

Bucks at Heat – 7:30 pm ET

In the four games that Dieng has played with Giannis Antetokounmpo this season, the big wing is averaging 12.5 points per game in 31.8 minutes per game. It seems like Doc Rivers values having another lengthy two-way contributor next to the Greek Freak, and Dieng’s development will also be a priority for Milwaukee the rest of the season. Well, with Dieng having a solidified role with this Bucks group, I like his chances of having another double-digit scoring night tonight. While the Heat are a top-five defensive team in the league, they’re still a good team to target with player props because of the pace they play at. Miami also happens to be a bottom-10 defense in transition and isolation, so Dieng can make some things happen using his long strides to get to the rim. Then, the Heat are also just 16th in the NBA defending spot-up jumpers, so Dieng can do some damage if he has his jumper going. I’ll also mention that Dieng had 11 points against the Heat on February 24, knocking down three 3s in 22 minutes. With a bigger role and some more room to operate, I can see him matching that total — or flirting with closer to 15 points.

Additional Plays (Late Adds, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)

Kon Knueppel To Win Rookie of the Year (-167 – 2 units): On November 17, I gave out Cooper Flagg to win Rookie of the Year as a 3-unit play at -115. Then, on January 8, I hedged with a +700 play on Knueppel. That said, I could be set up to profit no matter who wins, as I can win 2U with Flagg or 3.55U with Knueppel. But I’m ready to be greedy. I’m risking 3.34 units to win another 2U on Knueppel, meaning I’ll lose if Flagg wins or profit 5.55U if the Hornets guard does. That might seem a little irresponsible, but I also think passing on Knueppel at -167 would be foolish.

Knueppel is currently the league leader in 3-point makes, as he’s at 233 and is shooting a blistering 44.0% from deep. He has also been a borderline All-Star performer on a very good Charlotte team, averaging 19.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game. Those numbers are right there with Flagg’s 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, but it’s Knueppel that has the better shooting splits. The Hornets rookie is shooting 48.9% from the floor, 44.0% from deep, and 87.4 from the line, while Flagg is at 47.0%/29.9%/80.4%. Knueppel also has much better advanced stats than Flagg, as he’s +3.0 when looking at Estimated Plus-Minus; Flagg is at -0.7. Then, when looking at Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Knueppel’s 2.8 is double Flagg’s 1.4.

Flagg also hasn’t looked great since returning from injury. We haven’t seen any offensive explosions out of him lately, and it’ll take a few more for him to win over voters. I’m just at the point where I feel Knueppel being consistently great should be valued over Flagg’s short run of excellence. And the fact that Knueppel is performing at such a high level in games with real stakes should matter.

Overall, Flagg is the best rookie in the class and he’s on his way to having a special career. But Knueppel has had the best season. That’s what this award is for.

2025-26 NBA Record: 387-375 (+0.18 units)

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