The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 102-81-4 (55.7%). Here is today’s result: 

– IND-OKC UNDER 225
Multiple finals trends/systems, scheduling situation, extreme stat system #11, and Makinen effective strength ratings projection all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Since 2018, teams seeded 4th or worse in the NBA Finals have had their totals record at 18-4 to the Under (81.8%). They are only averaging 101.4 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 225)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 50-25 SU and 46-26-3 ATS (63.9%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND) 

* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 157-61 SU and 129-88-1 ATS (59.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML (-410 vs IND) 

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-35 SU and 7-34-1 ATS (17.1%). 

Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 47-19 SU and 44-17-5 ATS (72.1%) over the last nine years. 

· In its 20 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less five times, and 105 or more 15 times. OKC has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 17 times.

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General Trends

Home teams are a slightly better wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 31-24 SU and 27-26-2 ATS (50.9%) since 2014. This includes an improved 14-11-1 ATS (56%) mark in the last 26 games.

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 19-8 SU and 16-10-1 ATS (61.5%) in the last 27 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
Systems Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND) 

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 65 games, outright winners have gone 59-3-3 ATS (95.2%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 70 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 29 Overs, 41 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 27-12-1 (69.2%) run in the last 40 games, and 11-1 (91.7%) in the last 12.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 225)

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Trends by Line Range

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 27-8 SU and 22-11-2 ATS (66.7%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

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Trends by Seed Number

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 17-11 SU but 12-13-3 ATS (48%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 6-18 SU and 9-13-2 ATS (40.9%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC) 

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in Game Three and later in their respective series, going 11-9 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy UNDER teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 18-4 Under (81.8%). They are averaging 101.4 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 225)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 50-25 SU and 46-26-3 ATS (63.9%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-20 SU and 35-19-2 ATS in its last 56 games playing on 2 Days Rest
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs IND) 

* Under the total was 92-69-1 (57.1%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 137-85-1 (61.7%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 95-61-1 (60.9%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 225)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 157-61 SU and 129-88-1 ATS (59.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 320-271 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 225)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME FIVE

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.8) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+0.7) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC UNDER 225 (-2.2) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+0.5) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC OVER 225 (+0.4)

Here is a head-to-head series NBA betting trend in play for Game Five: 

Monday, June 16, 2025

(509) INDIANA at (510) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are on an extended 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS run in the Thunder-Pacers head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

The post NBA Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for June 16 appeared first on VSiN.