The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 99-80-4 (55.3%). Here are today’s results: 

– IND-OKC UNDER 231
Multiple finals trends/systems, scheduling situation, and both Makinen ratings projections all favor Under 

– OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)
Multiple finals trends/systems, team strength system #1, two Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OKC

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total was 134-84-1 (61.5%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 231) 

* Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 10-1 SU surge (9-2 ATS, 81.8%) in NBA Finals Game Ones. The average margin of victory in the nine wins has been 13.9 PPG.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 296-317 SU and 274-331-8 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-34 SU and 7-33-1 ATS (17.5%). 

Success accompanies reaching the 155-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 155 points or more boast a record of 43-16 SU and 40-14-5 ATS (74.1%) over the last nine years. 

· In its 16 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less four times, and 105 or more 12 times. OKC has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 13 times.

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General Trends

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 17-6 SU and 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) in the last 23 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND) 

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 61 games, outright winners have gone 55-3-3 ATS (94.8%) in the NBA Finals. 

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 68 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 38 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 24-11-1 (68.6%) run in the last 36 games, and on an eight-game streak heading into 2025.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 231)

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Trends by Line Range

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 26-7 SU and 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

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Trends by Game Number

NBA Finals series opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late – Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 10-1 SU surge (9-2 ATS, 81.8%) in NBA Finals Game Ones. The average margin of victory in the nine wins has been 13.9 PPG.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

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Trends by Seed Number

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 15-9 SU but 10-11-3 ATS (47.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 4-16 SU and 7-11-2 ATS (39.9%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy UNDER teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 15-3 Under (83.3%). They are averaging 99.6 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 231) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* Under the total was 134-84-1 (61.5%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 92-60-1 (60.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 231)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 157-61 SU and 129-88-1 ATS (59.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 303-236 SU but 241-283-15 ATS (46%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-70-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 296-317 SU and 274-331-8 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+9.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +9.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC UNDER 231 (-0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC UNDER 231 (-0.9) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for Game One:

Thursday, June 5, 2025

(501) INDIANA at (502) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 7-1 in the last eight of the IND-OKC head-to-head series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. IND)

* Over the total has converted in three straight head-to-head meetings
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-OKC (o/u at 231)

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