By: Marcus A. Gonzalez

🐺 After a Rocky 2024, the Wolfpack Look to Rebound

Following a disappointing 6–7 campaign in 2024, NC State enters the 2025 season with tempered expectations but renewed optimism. Head coach Dave Doeren, now in his 13th year, faces pressure to deliver a winning season after last year’s bowl loss to East Carolina and a midseason collapse that derailed early playoff hopes.

📊 Projected Win Total: 6.5

Vegas sportsbooks and analytics models converge on a projected win total of 6.5 wins for NC State in 2025. ESPN’s SP+ model gives the Wolfpack a 78.1% chance to win six or more games, but only a 0.2% chance to reach double-digit wins. That puts NC State squarely in the middle of the ACC pack, ranked 10th in the preseason media poll.

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🏈 Offensive Outlook: CJ Bailey Leads the Charge

Sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey returns after a promising freshman season, throwing for 2,417 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’ll be supported by:

  • Justin Joly (TE) – All-ACC caliber talent, led the team with 661 receiving yards
  • Noah Rogers (WR) – Sophomore breakout candidate with big-play ability
  • Hollywood Smothers (RB) – Rushed for 571 yards and 6.4 yards per carry

New offensive coordinator Kurt Roper aims to install a faster-paced attack, hoping to reduce turnover-prone and negative plays that plagued the team last year.

🛡️ Defensive Rebuild Under DJ Eliot

The defense, once a strength, slipped to 69th in SP+ last season. New coordinator DJ Eliot inherits a unit with just six returning defenders who played 200+ snaps. Key additions include:

  • Sabastian Harsh (DE, Wyoming) – Explosive edge rusher
  • Brian Nelson II (CB, North Texas) – Ballhawk with four interceptions last season
  • Sean Brown (LB) – Senior leader and top tackler

The secondary is largely rebuilt, and the pressure will be on Eliot to restore NC State’s defensive identity.

📅 Key Games and Schedule Notes

  • Sept. 6 vs. Virginia – First ACC test
  • Sept. 20 at Duke – A rivalry game NC State must win to build momentum
  • Late-season gauntlet – Includes road trips to Notre Dame, Pitt, and Miami, plus home games against Florida State and UNC

🏆 Best-Case Scenario: 9–3

If Bailey takes a leap and the defense stabilizes, NC State could win key coin-flip games at home and finish 9–3, just shy of a breakthrough season.

💣 Worst-Case Scenario: 4–8

If the defense falters and the offense remains turnover-prone, the Wolfpack could miss a bowl entirely, leading to serious questions about the program’s direction.

🔮 Final Prediction: 7–5

With a more experienced quarterback, improved offensive weapons, and a manageable schedule, NC State should exceed last year’s win total. A 7–5 finish, and a bowl appearance seem realistic—though not guaranteed.