Game: NC State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes

Date: November 15th at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Coming into this game with an extra week of rest, the NC State Wolfpack are looking to replicate what they accomplished just two weeks ago — taking down the 8th-ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. This week, they head south to face the Miami Hurricanes, a team that’s been inconsistent in recent weeks.

Following their big win, the Wolfpack sit at 5-4 overall but just 2-3 in ACC play. Offensively, they’ve been impressive, averaging 417.5 yards per game (34th in FBS) and 29.5 points per game (48th). However, the defense has struggled lately, allowing 454.4 yards per game (127th) and 33.1 points per game (119th).

The Hurricanes, meanwhile, got off to a hot start but now enter this matchup at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the ACC. Their offense has been solid, averaging 392.3 yards per game (57th) and 31.4 points per game (31st). It’s their defense, though, that’s been the backbone of this team — allowing just 296.9 yards per game (11th) and 16.5 points per game (11th).

This will be another tough test for NC State if they hope to pull off the upset, but with the chance to derail Miami’s playoff hopes, the Wolfpack have proven they’re capable of toppling elite ACC opponents.

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Weather

This is definitely the time of year to be in Florida, as temperatures will sit in the mid-70s throughout the game with only a 5% chance of rain. Winds shouldn’t play much of a factor, averaging around 8 mph with occasional gusts up to 14 mph.

Betting Overview

The spread for this matchup has remained steady at Miami -14.5 since opening. The moneylines have also held firm, with the best value sitting at +475 for NC State and -600 for Miami. The total has shown no movement either, staying at its original mark of 55.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: NC State sits at a modest 57th giving 2.8 points to the FBS average, while Miami is at 13th, giving 17.7 points to the FBS average.  Using the FPI model, we would actually see Miami as heavier favorites in this matchup.
  • SP+: Both teams find themselves in the same respective spots here as well, with NC State at 57th and Miami at 13th. The Wolfpack give 3.7 points to the field average, while Miami gives 18.3. According to SP+, Miami would again be viewed as the stronger favorite.

Betting Trends

NC State enters this matchup below .500 against the spread with a 4-5 record. Things have been especially challenging on the road, where they sit at 1-3 overall and 0-3 as an away underdog. Within the ACC, they’ve been exactly even at 3-3. Totals have leaned heavily toward the over, hitting in 6 of 9 Wolfpack games this season. On the road, the over has cashed in 3 of 4, 2 of 3 as an away underdog, and 5 of 6 in conference play.

Miami, on the other hand, holds a slight edge above .500 ATS at 5-4. At home they’re 4-3, including a 3-3 mark as home favorites. Within the ACC, they’ve gone just 2-3 ATS. Unders have been slightly more common overall, hitting in 5 of 9 games, though overs have been more favorable at home, cashing in 4 of 7. As home favorites, totals have split evenly 3-3, and in ACC play, the under has hit in 3 of 5.

Final Thoughts

Over the past few seasons, this has been the point where the Hurricanes have started to slip. This matchup is crucial for them not to overlook, as they’re just three games away from positioning themselves for a potential playoff berth. I think Miami comes into this one focused and handles business, covering the spread. I also expect the under to hit in this matchup.