Game: NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Date: October 11th at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: Peacock

Following back-to-back losses, NC State finally got back in the win column last week against Campbell. The Wolfpack will now make their first trip outside the state of North Carolina this season, heading to South Bend, Indiana, to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

NC State enters this matchup ranked 52nd nationally in scoring offense (29.4 points per game) and 38th in total offense (415.8 yards per game), with their passing attack far outpacing the run game in terms of production. On the defensive side, things have been more challenging — the Wolfpack rank 83rd in points allowed per game (28.0) and 95th in total defense (412.4 yards per game). Their pass defense in particular will need to improve significantly if they want to keep this one close.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, has been on a dominant three-game win streak after a slower start to the season. The Irish enter this contest boasting the 9th-ranked scoring offense in the FBS (40.8 PPG) and 17th in total offense (465 yards per game), with much of that success coming through the air attack. Defensively, Notre Dame has been solid but not elite, ranking 55th in points allowed (23.6) and 64th in total defense (374.6 yards per game), though their run defense has been particularly stout.

To put it bluntly, this is an uphill battle for NC State, but it also presents a massive opportunity — one that could reshape their season and potentially knock Notre Dame out of the College Football Playoff race.

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Weather

Saturday in South Bend is shaping up to be pleasant for this matchup, with temperatures in the mid-60s throughout the game. There’s no chance of precipitation, and while wind could play a minor role, it should remain manageable with average speeds around 7 mph and occasional gusts up to 16 mph.

Betting Overview

It’s no surprise that Notre Dame enters as a heavy favorite in this matchup. The line opened at -21.5, and has since moved further in their favor, now sitting between -22.5 and -23.5. Despite that movement, moneylines have remained relatively stable, with NC State around +1000 and Notre Dame ranging from -1800 to -2000. The total has seen notable movement downward, dropping from its opening mark of 62.5 to 58 or 58.5 across most books.

Power Rankings

  • ESPN FPI: The ESPN Football Power Index is very high on the Fighting Irish, ranking them 5th in FBS, while NC State comes in at 58th. Based on this model, Notre Dame would be a 21-point favorite against the FBS average, whereas NC State would be a 3.4-point favorite on a neutral field. Factoring in Notre Dame’s home-field advantage, the FPI projects the Irish as 19–20 point favorites in this matchup.
  • SP+: While not quite as bullish as the FPI, Notre Dame ranks 9th in SP+, sitting 22.5 points better than the FBS average. NC State ranks 56th, rated +5.5 points above the FBS average, which translates to Notre Dame being favored by approximately 18.5–19.5 points.
  • Sagarin: The Sagarin Ratings are even higher on Notre Dame, placing them 4th in the country, while NC State sits at 49th in this system.

Betting Trends

NC State: Entering this matchup against Notre Dame, the Wolfpack sit right at .500 ATS with a 3–3 record. They’re 1–1 on the road, but failed to cover in their only game as an away underdog. NC State has been solid following wins, going 2–1 ATS after a victory this season. Totals have leaned toward the over, which has hit in 4 of their 6 games, including both road contests and all 3 games following a win.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are 2–3 ATS so far, with a 1–2 record at home, both of those home games coming as the favorite. Similar to NC State, overs have been common, cashing in 4 of their 5 games. At home, the over has hit in 2 of 3 contests.

Final Thoughts

NC State has a chance to finish their out-of-conference schedule undefeated, though it comes against their toughest opponent of the season. Notre Dame has found new life after a rocky start but will be without standout wide receiver Jaden Greathouse. NC State enters a bit banged up as well, though nothing major appears to be lingering.

At 23.5 points, this spread feels steep, and I like the Wolfpack to cover here. However, the current total feels like a trap, so I’d stay away from the over/under in this matchup.