Game: Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 19th at 2:50 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

The Duke Blue Devils men’s basketball will get their NCAA Tournament run underway in the mid-afternoon against the Siena Saints men’s basketball, champions of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. A major storyline surrounding Duke is the difficulty of their region, loaded with big-name programs, along with some recent injury concerns. Head coach Jon Scheyer will undoubtedly be focused on keeping his team locked in and blocking out that external noise.

While Siena is not a team that can be completely overlooked—especially in a single-elimination format—this is still a matchup where Duke is expected to take care of business. The Saints enter the tournament with a 23–11 overall record. This will be just their second Quad 1 opponent of the season, as they lost their only previous game against that level of competition. Siena averages 70.5 points per game (273rd in Division I) while allowing just 65.7 points per game (12th in Division I), showing a defense capable of keeping games competitive.

Duke, meanwhile, has put together a dominant season, capturing both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles. The Blue Devils come into this matchup at an impressive 32–2 overall. Siena qualifies as a Quad 3 opponent on a neutral floor, a quadrant where Duke is 2–0 this season. Through 34 games, Duke is averaging 82.3 points per game (32nd in Division I) while allowing just 63.1 points per game (3rd in Division I).

While history has shown that No. 1 seeds are not completely immune to first-round upsets, this is undeniably a steep challenge for Siena.

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Betting Overview

This 1 vs. 16 matchup opened with Duke as a 26.5-point favorite and has since climbed slightly to 27.5 at most sportsbooks.

Many books are not offering a traditional moneyline due to the large spread, but where available, Siena can be found around +3500 (DraftKings), while Duke sits near -10000 (BetMGM).

The total has remained relatively steady, opening at 136.5 and hovering between 135.5 and 136 across sportsbooks.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, there is a massive gap between these two programs. Duke ranks No. 1 nationally with a net rating of +38.88, while Siena sits 194th with a net rating of -2.20.

The Blue Devils boast an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 127.9 (4th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 89.1 (2nd nationally), while playing at a slower tempo ranked 287th nationally.

Siena, on the other hand, has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 107.1 (212th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 109.3 (176th nationally), along with an even slower tempo ranking 319th nationally.

Betting Trends

Siena comes into this matchup with a strong 20-14 ATS record, including an impressive 4-1 mark on neutral courts, a 4-3 record as an underdog, and a 6-5 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have heavily leaned toward the under in Siena games, hitting in 23 of 34 contests. On neutral courts, the under has been perfect, hitting in all five games. As an underdog, the under has connected in four of seven matchups, and in non-conference play it has hit in eight of 11 games.

The Duke Blue Devils enter with a 19-15 ATS record, including a 4-4 mark on neutral floors, a 17-15 record as a favorite, and an 8-5 record against non-conference opponents. The under has also been a consistent trend in Duke games, hitting in 22 of 34 contests this season. On neutral courts, the under has hit in five of eight games. When Duke has been favored, the under has connected in 20 of 32 matchups, and in non-conference games it has hit in 10 of 13.

Final Thoughts

Any time an NCAA Tournament game tips off, there is an added level of excitement—even in 1 vs. 16 matchups. While these games can occasionally produce surprises, this still looks like a spot where Duke’s overall talent and depth should prove too much to overcome.

Even with some injury concerns, I expect Duke to handle business comfortably and cover the spread. As for the total, both teams have shown strong under trends throughout the season, so I would lean toward the under, even at a relatively low number.