Game: VCU Rams vs. UNC Tar Heels

Date: March 19th at 6:50 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

This is absolutely one of those first-round matchups you need to circle as a must-watch. On one side, you have the VCU Rams, champions of the Atlantic 10 Conference, taking on a banged-up but dangerous North Carolina Tar Heels squad looking to prove doubters wrong.

VCU has long been a respected program, though they were not necessarily viewed as the top team in their conference entering the season. Despite that, the Rams put together an outstanding year and enter the tournament at 27–7. This will be their seventh Quad 1 opponent of the season, a category in which they are currently 2–4. VCU is averaging 81.6 points per game (40th in Division I) while allowing 71.5 points per game (94th in Division I).

North Carolina, meanwhile, has dealt with some inconsistency down the stretch but has had time to regroup heading into the tournament. The Tar Heels finished their season at 24–8 overall. On a neutral court, VCU qualifies as a Quad 1 opponent for UNC, and Carolina is 6–8 in those matchups. The Tar Heels are averaging 79.8 points per game (73rd in Division I) while allowing 71.3 points per game (89th in Division I).

With this game being played in Greenville, South Carolina, it will be interesting to see how the crowd splits, but regardless, this sets up as a highly competitive and entertaining matchup.

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Betting Overview

North Carolina opened as a 1.5-point favorite in this matchup, but the line has since moved slightly in their favor, now sitting at -2.5 across most sportsbooks.

The moneyline has followed a similar trend, with VCU moving from +102 to around +125, while UNC has shifted from -122 to approximately -145.

The most notable movement has come with the total, which has dropped significantly from the opening number of 155.5 down to 151.5.

KenPom Ratings

According to KenPom, this is one of the tighter first-round matchups, especially for a 6 vs. 11 seed pairing. North Carolina currently ranks 30th with a net rating of +20.79, while VCU sits close behind at 44th with a net rating of +17.44.

The Tar Heels have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 121.3 (32nd nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 100.5 (37th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 68.0 (144th nationally). VCU comes in with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 119.9 (45th nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 102.5 (60th nationally), and a slightly faster tempo at 68.6 (115th nationally).

Betting Trends

The VCU Rams come into this matchup with a 17-17 ATS record, including a 4-3 mark on neutral courts, a 2-3 record as an underdog, and a 7-6 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have leaned toward the under in VCU games, hitting in 19 of 34 contests. On neutral courts, the under has connected in five of seven games. As an underdog, the under has been even more consistent, hitting in four of five matchups. However, in non-conference games, the over has actually been slightly more common, hitting in 7 of 13.

The North Carolina Tar Heels enter with a strong 19-13 ATS record, including a 2-2 mark on neutral floors, a 12-10 record as a favorite, and an 8-5 record in non-conference play. Totals have also leaned toward the under in UNC games, hitting in 19 of 32 contests. On neutral courts, totals have split evenly at two apiece. When Carolina has been favored, the under has hit in 12 of 22 games, and in non-conference matchups the under has connected in 10 of 13.

Final Thoughts

This is one of the most intriguing Round of 64 matchups on the board, and it’s no surprise that the VCU Rams are a popular upset pick given North Carolina’s recent form and injury concerns.

That said, it’s a difficult game to confidently pick a side. Because of that uncertainty, I’m staying away from the spread and instead leaning toward the under, as both teams have consistently trended in that direction throughout the season.