Game: Boston College Eagles vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: February 3rd at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

In what feels like preparation for the Duke-UNC game on Saturday, Duke has a matchup tonight vs. Boston College. 

Boston College hasn’t exactly been the cream of the crop in the ACC this season, but they’ve managed to play some close games against decent teams. They will travel down to Durham with a 9-12 overall record and a 2-6 record in the ACC. They will face a Duke team that is currently number one in the NET ratings, so this sure is a quad one matchup for them, a quadrant they are 0-4 against this season. This Eagles team is not prolific at scoring the basketball, only averaging 68.1 points per game (307th in Division I), but they have managed to hold things down for the most part defensively, only allowing 68.4 points per game (38th in Division I). 

Duke is still in pursuit of perfection in ACC play, as they are now 20-1 overall with a 9-0 conference record. Boston College presents as a quad three for the Blue Devils at home, a quadrant they’ve only had one game against this season and won. Up to this point in the season, we’ve seen Duke average 85 points per game (26th in Division I), while being suffocating on defense, allowing just 64.3 points per game (8th in Division I). 

The only thing that could seemingly stop Duke from taking care of business tonight is if they look ahead to Saturday; however, with the way they’ve been playing, it feels like nobody can stop them at the moment.

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Betting Overview

Duke opened as monster favorites in this game at -24.5 and have only grown to be even bigger favorites, as they are now 26 to 26.5-point favorites depending on the sportsbook. We’re only seeing one sportsbook, FanDuel, with a moneyline for this matchup, with BC at +3500 and Duke a -20000 favorite. The total for this one opened pretty low at 135.5 and has moved up a hair to 139.5.

KenPom Ratings

Duke isn’t quite number one in the KenPom ratings, as they are third with a net rating of +35.96, while BC is 144th with a net rating of +1.88. The Blue Devils are fourth in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency ratings (offensive: 127.6) (defensive: 91.6), making them arguably the most balanced attack in the nation. The Eagles, on the other hand, have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 103.9 (275th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 102.0 (51st nationally). These numbers certainly point to a low-scoring affair, hence the over/under coming in at the number it did.

Betting Trends

Duke has had a stronghold on this matchup over the years, winning each of the last 10 matchups, but this game features the biggest spread we’ve seen in quite some time. We’ve actually seen each team cover five games apiece over the last 10 games against each other, and the games have leaned toward the under, hitting in seven of the last 10.

BC comes into this game against Duke at 9-12 ATS, with a 3-3 record on the road (all as underdogs), an 8-5 record with 2-3 days off, and a 6-2 record in the ACC. Totals have favored the under, hitting in 14 of 21 games this season. On the road, we’ve seen the under hit in four of six, as well as eight of 13 with 2-3 days off. In ACC games, the under has hit in six of eight.

This Blue Devils team is currently 13-8 ATS this year, with a 5-5 record at home (all as favorites), a 9-4 record with 2-3 days off, and a 6-3 record in the ACC. We’ve seen the under be favorable in Duke games as well, hitting in 14 of 21 games. In games at home, the under has hit in six of 10, as well as nine of 13 games with 2-3 days off. In ACC games, the under has hit in five of nine.

Final Thoughts

As we’ve seen during the short tenure of Jon Scheyer as the head coach at Duke, he consistently has his guys ready to go for these kinds of games. That said, I think this spread is simply too big for the Blue Devils to cover in this spot, making me lean slightly toward BC covering on the road. With the over/under as low as it is, it could really go either way.