Game: Charlotte 49ers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Date: February 18th at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Things quickly went from trending in the wrong direction for Charlotte to outright concerning, as they fell to UTSA on Sunday, giving the Roadrunners their first conference win of the season. The 49ers will need a short memory, as they now travel to Tulsa, Oklahoma to face the Golden Hurricane, who are also in the midst of a three-game losing streak.

Charlotte enters this matchup just one game over .500 at 13-12, with a 7-5 mark in the American Conference. With Tulsa sitting 53rd in the NET rankings, this qualifies as a Quad 1 opportunity for Charlotte, and they are currently 0-2 in such games this season. The 49ers are averaging 73.2 points per game (219th in Division I) while allowing 73.9 points per contest (162nd nationally).

Tulsa, for the most part, has been a very solid team this season, though closing out games has recently been an issue. The Golden Hurricane are 20-6 overall with an 8-5 record in conference play. From Tulsa’s perspective, Charlotte qualifies as a Quad 4 opponent at home, and the Golden Hurricane are a perfect 7-0 against such teams this season. Through 26 games, Tulsa is averaging 84.0 points per game (28th in Division I) while surrendering 74.2 points per contest (165th nationally).

This shapes up as a desperation spot for both sides, and I expect each team to come in with added urgency, which should make for an intense and competitive matchup.

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Betting Overview

There is little discrepancy across sportsbooks for this line, with most books listing Tulsa between -12.5 and -13.5. On the moneyline, the best value for Charlotte sits at +700 (Bet365, DraftKings, Caesars), while Tulsa can be found at -1100 (Bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel). The total has ticked up slightly from the opening number of 148.5, with most books now at 150.5 and a few hanging 149.5.

KenPom Ratings

There is a sizable gap between these teams in the KenPom ratings, with Tulsa ranked 62nd nationally and holding a +12.64 net rating, while Charlotte sits 201st with a -2.67 net rating. The Golden Hurricane have been highly efficient offensively, posting an adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.2 (32nd nationally), though their adjusted defensive efficiency of 108.5 ranks 167th.

Charlotte, meanwhile, owns an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 112.2 (112th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 114.9 (296th nationally), highlighting some of the struggles on that end of the floor.

Betting Trends

In the earlier meeting this season, Tulsa secured a decisive 86-74 victory, covering the spread while the total went over. Looking at the previous four matchups between these programs dating back to 2022, each team has won two games and covered twice. The totals in those contests produced two unders, one over, and one push.

Charlotte now sits at an even 12-12 ATS, including a 4-5 mark on the road and a 2-4 record as a road underdog. The 49ers are 6-6 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 6-6 ATS in American Conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over overall, hitting in 14 of 24 contests. On the road, the over has connected in five of nine games, while totals have split three apiece when Charlotte has been a road underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in seven of 12 games, and in conference action, the over has cashed in eight of 12.

Tulsa enters this matchup with a 13-10-1 ATS record, including a 6-3-1 mark at home, all as favorites. The Golden Hurricane are 10-7-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 6-7 ATS in conference play. Totals have strongly favored the over for Tulsa, cashing in 16 of 24 games overall. At home, the over has hit in seven of 10 contests. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has connected in 12 of 18 games, as well as eight of 13 in American Conference action.

Final Thoughts

Both teams enter this matchup looking to regain momentum, and I expect a competitive effort from each side. That said, Tulsa appears to have the edge, particularly on the offensive end, which could prove too much for Charlotte to overcome. For that reason, I would back the Golden Hurricane to win and cover, while also leaning toward the over in this contest.