Game: Charlotte 49ers vs. Wichita State Shockers

Date: February 4th at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

After Charlotte’s win on Friday evening against Rice, they now find themselves tied atop the American Conference standings. They will be back on the road this week, however, as they travel to Wichita, Kansas to take on the Wichita State Shockers. The Shockers have slightly underperformed expectations to this point in the season, as they sit at 13–9 overall with a 5–4 record in the American. With Charlotte currently ranked 154th in the NET rankings, this will be a Quad 3 contest for Wichita State, a quadrant in which the Shockers are just 1–3 this season. Wichita State is averaging 77.2 points per game (131st in Division I) while allowing 70.7 points per game (77th in Division I).

Charlotte is also 13–9 on the season, but now stands at 7–2 in American Conference play. Because this game is on the road, Wichita State qualifies as a Quad 2 opponent for the 49ers, a quadrant they have not faced often and are currently 0–2 against this season. Entering this matchup, Charlotte is averaging 74.2 points per game (196th in Division I) while allowing 73.0 points per game (137th in Division I). This will certainly be a tougher test for Charlotte with the game being played away from home, but we will see if they can notch their first Quad 2 win of the season.

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Betting Overview

There is some discrepancy across sportsbooks when it comes to the spread, with some listing Wichita State as an 8.5-point favorite, others at 9, and some as high as 9.5. On the moneyline, the best value for Charlotte sits at +390 (Bet365), while Wichita State is listed at –500 (FanDuel). There is far less variance with the total, as this number has settled consistently at 141.5 across the board.

KenPom Ratings

Looking at the KenPom ratings, Wichita State checks in at 95th nationally with a +7.73 net rating, while Charlotte sits at 163rd with a -0.18 net rating. The Shockers bring a fairly balanced profile, owning an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 114.1 (104th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 106.4 (107th nationally). Charlotte, on the other hand, profiles as more offense-oriented, posting an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.3 (101st nationally), but struggling defensively with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 114.4 (274th nationally).

Betting Trends

In the earlier meeting this season between these programs, Charlotte earned the win, covered the spread, and saw the over hit in an overtime thriller. Looking back at the three matchups prior to that, Wichita State won two of the three games, though Charlotte still managed to cover in two of those contests. Totals leaned heavily toward the under in those earlier meetings, with the under hitting in all three.

This season, Charlotte is 12–9 ATS. The 49ers are 4–3 on the road, 2–2 as an away underdog, 4–4 in games with four or more days of rest, and 6–3 in American Conference play. Totals have favored the over, which has hit in 13 of 21 games overall. On the road, the over has been even stronger, cashing in five of seven games, including three of four as an away underdog. In games with four or more days off, the over has hit in five of eight contests, and in conference games, it has connected in seven of nine.

Wichita State enters this matchup 13–8 ATS on the season. The Shockers are 8–3 at home, all of which have come as favorites, 9–4 in games with two to three days of rest, and 5–4 in conference play. The under has been the more consistent trend in Wichita State games, hitting in 12 of 21 overall. At home, the under has cashed in seven of 11 games, as well as seven of 13 contests with two to three days of rest. Against conference opponents, the under has hit in five of nine games.

Final Thoughts

Charlotte has exceeded expectations throughout conference play, but every season brings inevitable bumps along the way, and this matchup feels like one of those spots. With Wichita State at home, the Shockers appear well positioned to secure both the win and the cover. Given the conflicting over/under trends on both sides, the total is best left alone in this one.