Game: Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: February 14th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Saturday is loaded with action-packed college basketball, tipping off at noon in Durham with a matchup between two of the ACC’s top teams: Clemson and Duke. Clemson suffered what was likely its worst loss of the season Wednesday night against Virginia Tech, but in college basketball, you have to turn the page quickly. The Tigers now sit at 20-5 overall and have fallen out of a tie for first in the ACC, dropping to 10-2 in conference play. This will be a Quad 1 opportunity for Clemson, which currently holds a 4-3 record against Quad 1 opponents. Through 25 games, the Tigers are averaging 75.6 points per game (159th in Division I) while allowing just 64.6 points per game (8th nationally).

Meanwhile, Duke returned to form Tuesday night with a dominant win over Pitt. The Blue Devils are now 22-2 overall and have taken sole possession of first place in the ACC at 11-1 in conference play. Clemson will represent a Quad 1 opponent for Duke, a category in which the Blue Devils are 4-0 this season. Duke is averaging 82.9 points per game (39th in Division I) while allowing only 63.5 points per game (4th nationally). This matchup will go a long way toward deciding control of the ACC regular-season race and would qualify as a high-quality win for either side.

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Betting Overview

When the line opened, Duke was listed as an 11.5-point favorite but has since been bet up to 13.5. The moneyline has moved in a similar direction, with Clemson shifting from +525 to +760 and Duke moving from -750 to -1000. The total has either dipped slightly or held steady depending on the sportsbook, opening at 133.5 and settling at 132.5 at some books.

KenPom Ratings

Duke has consistently hovered around third in the KenPom rankings and now owns a net rating of +35.77. Clemson has slipped to 32nd nationally with a net rating of +20.67. The Blue Devils boast an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 125.6 (9th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.8 (3rd nationally). Clemson, on the other hand, carries an adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.2 (70th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 95.5 (16th nationally). With two elite defenses squaring off, this sets up as a physical, half-court battle that could come down to execution late.

Betting Trends

These teams haven’t faced each other as often as many ACC rivals, but over the last eight matchups dating back to 2019, Duke has won five of eight. Against the spread, however, Clemson has covered in five of those eight meetings. The totals in those matchups have split evenly at four overs and four unders.

Clemson enters this game with a 13-10-1 ATS record, including a strong 6-1 mark on the road and a 1-0 record as a road underdog. The Tigers are 7-7-1 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and 7-4-1 ATS in ACC play. Unders have been very prominent in Clemson games, hitting in 15 of 24 contests overall. On the road, the under has cashed in four of seven games, though the lone road underdog game went over. With 2-3 days of rest, the under has hit in nine of 15 games, and it has connected in 8 of 12 ACC matchups.

Duke comes in at 13-11 ATS, including a 5-6 record at home, all as favorites. The Blue Devils are 9-7 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and 6-6 ATS in conference play. Totals have also leaned heavily toward the under in Duke games, hitting in 17 of 24 overall. At home, the under has cashed in seven of 11 games, as well as 12 of 16 with 2-3 days of rest and 8 of 12 in ACC play.

Final Thoughts

With plenty at stake in the ACC regular-season race, expect a high-intensity effort from both sides. While it’s clear who the more talented team is on paper, the spread is sizable at 13.5 points. Clemson should be able to compete well enough to stay within the number in this spot, though the total feels far less predictable and is likely best avoided.