Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. NC State Wolfpack

Date: March 2nd at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

The season’s final “Big Monday” matchup features the Duke Blue Devils and the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh. Duke continues to roll, as they routed Virginia at home Saturday afternoon, extending their winning streak to six games. The Blue Devils now sit at an impressive 27-2 overall with a 15-1 record in ACC play.

This marks yet another Quad 1 opportunity for Duke, and they are 12-2 against opponents in that quadrant. The Blue Devils are averaging 82.8 points per game (32nd in Division I) while allowing just 62.5 points per contest (3rd nationally).

NC State’s struggles persisted over the weekend, as they fell in overtime at Notre Dame on Saturday. Things don’t get any easier tonight, even with the home-court advantage. The Wolfpack are now 19-10 overall with a 10-6 mark in the ACC. This will be their 12th Quad 1 matchup of the season, and they are currently 4-7 against such opponents. NC State is averaging 84.2 points per game (23rd in Division I) while allowing 75.1 points per contest (191st nationally).

The big question: will Duke’s suffocating defense dictate the game once again, or can NC State’s high-powered offense do enough to keep this competitive?

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Betting Overview

Duke typically draws heavier action as the week progresses, but in this case, the line has actually moved slightly toward NC State. The Blue Devils opened as 10.5-point favorites and now sit at -9.5. The best moneyline value currently sits around -480 for Duke (Caesars) and +400 for NC State (FanDuel).

The total has largely held steady at 148.5, with a few sportsbooks trimming it down to 147.5.

KenPom Ratings

Unsurprisingly, Duke remains the No. 1 team in the KenPom ratings with a +39.65 net rating, while NC State ranks 31st with a +20.87 net rating.

The Blue Devils boast an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 127.9 (6th nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 88.3 (1st nationally). NC State counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.2 (24th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 102.4 (46th nationally).

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these programs, the Duke Blue Devils have won six, while the NC State Wolfpack have been more successful against the spread, covering in six of those contests. Totals in this series have leaned toward the under, cashing in six of the last 10 matchups.

Duke enters this game 17-12 ATS, with a 7-3 record on the road, a 6-3 mark as an away favorite, a 2-1 record with one day of rest, and a 9-7 record in ACC play. The under has been extremely prominent in Duke games this season, hitting in 20 of 29 overall. On the road, the under has connected in 7 of 10, including 6 of 9 as a road favorite. In games with one day of rest, the under has hit in 2 of 3, and in ACC matchups, it has cashed in 10 of 16.

NC State comes in at 15-13-1 ATS, holding a 7-6-1 record at home, an 0-1 mark with one day of rest, and an 8-7-1 record in conference play. Overs have been slightly more favorable in Wolfpack games overall, hitting in 17 of 29 contests. However, at home, the under has hit in 8 of 14 games. In NC State’s lone game with one day of rest, the over cashed, and in ACC play, the over has hit in 10 of 16 contests.

Final Thoughts

With the way Duke is playing right now, they look like a well-oiled machine. Their defense is operating at an elite level, and offensively they can overwhelm teams in stretches. Given NC State’s recent inconsistencies, this feels like a difficult matchup for the Wolfpack.

For that reason, I lean toward Duke covering in this spot, and I like the under.